HR: 1340h
AN: U43C-1411 INVITED    [Abstracts]
TI: Carbon-Neutral Energy Supply and Energy Demand-Reduction Technology Needed for Continued Economic Growth Without Dangerous Interference in the Climate System
AU: Hoffert, M I
EM: marty.hoffert@nyu.edu
AF: New York University, Department of Physics, Andre and Bella Meyer Hall of Physics, Room 525, Mail Code 1026,4 Washington Place, New York, NY 10003-6621, United States
AU: * Caldeira, K
EM: kcaldeira@stanford.edu
AF: Carnegie Institution, Department of Global Ecology, 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305, United States
AB: Stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at levels likely to avoid unacceptable climate risk will require a major transformation in the ways we produce and use energy. Most of our energy will need to come from sources that do not emit carbon dioxide to the atmosphere and that energy will need to be used efficiently. The required reduction of carbon dioxide emissions as global energy consumption and GDP grow imposes quantitative requirements on some combination of carbon-neutral primary power and energy demand reduction. (Emission reductions are expressed relative to an implicit or explicit baseline; explicit being better for policy-making. Energy demand reduction involves both efficiency improvements and lifestyle changes.) These requirements can be expressed as CO2 emission reductions needed, or as carbon-neutral primary power production needed combined with power not used by virtue of increased energy end use efficiency or lifestyle changes ("negawatts"), always subject to some reasonably well-characterized uncertainty limits. Climatic changes thus far have been closer to the more extreme zone of the climatic uncertainty envelope of global warming indicating the potential for disastrous impacts by mid-century and beyond for business-as-usual. Emission reductions needed to avoid "dangerous interference in the climate system" imply a revolutionary change in the global energy system beginning now; particularly ominous are massive conventional coal-fired electric power energy infrastructures under construction by the US, China & India. Strong arguments, based on physical science considerations, exist for prompt measures such as (1) an immediate moratorium on coal-fired plants that don't sequester CO2, (2) a gradually increasing price on carbon emissions and (3) regulatory standards, for example, that would encourage utilities and car manufacturers to improve efficiency, and (4) Apollo-scale R & D projects beginning now to develop sustainable carbon-neutral power that can be deployed on a planetary scale soon enough to matter.
DE: 0428 Carbon cycling (4806)
DE: 0485 Science policy (6620)
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
DE: 6314 Demand estimation
DE: 6349 General or miscellaneous
SC: Union [U]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting