HR: 09:15h
AN: V21E-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Significant eruption source parameter(s) for operational volcanic ash cloud transport and dispersion models for Spurr, 1992, eruptions
AU: Servranckx, R
EM: Rene.Servranckx@ec.gc.ca
AF: Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) and Montreal Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC), Environment Canada, 2121 Trans-Canada Highway, Dorval, Quebec, H9P 1J3, Canada
AU: Malo, A W
EM: Alain.Malo@ec.gc.ca
AF: Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) and Montreal Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC), Environment Canada, 2121 Trans-Canada Highway, Dorval, Quebec, H9P 1J3, Canada
AU: * Webley, P W
EM: pwebley@gi.alaska.edu
AF: Arctic Region Super Computing Center (ARSC), 909 Koyukuk Drive, University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States
AU: * Webley, P W
EM: pwebley@gi.alaska.edu
AF: Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO)/Geophysical Institute (GI), University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States
AU: Stunder, B
EM: barbara.stunder@noaa.gov
AF: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Air Resources Laboratory (NOAA/ARL), 1315 East West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910-3382, United States
AU: Dean, K G
EM: kdean@gi.alaska.edu
AF: Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO)/Geophysical Institute (GI), University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States
AB: The monitoring and forecasting of airborne volcanic ash clouds is a necessity for volcano observatories and volcanic ash advisory centres (VAAC) as volcanic ash is a major hazard for local and international aircraft as well as the local population. Ground observations and satellite remote sensing data are not always available in real time. Yet, volcanic ash tracking and dispersion (VATD) models are required to provide simulations/predictions of the ash clouds' movement for up to 18 hours. These VATD models require information on the volcanic eruption, such as eruption start time, plume height, grain size distribution, ash distribution in the plume and eruption rate. During operational real-time responses, these are often not available and therefore default values are used. As more information becomes available, the default parameters are substituted by the known eruption data. International work has been ongoing to determine improved eruption source parameters (ESP) as a function of volcano type, magma type and size of the eruption. These can then be used for VATD simulations before actual eruption data become available. Here, we use the CanERM, HYSPLIT and Puff VATD models, as used within the NOPAC region, for two well studied eruptions at Mount Spurr, Alaska in August and September 1992 to assess the most significant eruption source parameter(s). We show the model simulations using the actual eruption data collected and compare these to variations on this source data to get a sense of how significant the accuracy of each source parameter is on the results. The results from this study will be a first step in understanding which ESP are the most sensitive to changes for the operational VATD predictions.
DE: 0370 Volcanic effects (8409)
DE: 8409 Atmospheric effects (0370)
DE: 8419 Volcano monitoring (7280)
DE: 8488 Volcanic hazards and risks
SC: Volcanology, Geochemistry, Petrology [V]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting