HR: 15:45h
AN: A14A-02    [Abstracts]
TI: Skill of Forecast Methodologies for US Seasonal Climate
AU: * hoerling, m
EM: martin.hoerling@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305 United States
AU: kumar, a
EM: arun.kumar@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AU: quan, x
EM: quan.xiaowei@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305 United States
AB: This study appraises prospects for US seasonal forecast skill by diagnosing various dynamical modeling systems. Parallel evaluation of an empirical forecast model provides a performance baseline. Results are drawn from hindcast applications of each system for the 20-year reference period 1981-1999. Two classes of dynamical model systems are studied. One consists of atmospheric models subjected to specified sea surface temperatures comprising the so-called two-tier prediction system. Another consists of coupled atmosphere-ocean models comprising the so-called one-tier system. Multi-models are available for each methodology, and ensemble experiments are generated for every model. We discriminate between the performances in different verions of each system. Two generations of the two-tiered dynamical systems are available: a multi-model suite of four GCMs developed in the 1990s and a comparable suite of their subsequent model versions released in recent years. For the one-tier, a seven-model suite of coupled hindcasts is derived from the DEMETER project, and their performance is compared to a recent coupled forecast system developed in support of U.S. seasonal climate forecasting. The presentation focuses on two questions: Is U.S seasonal forecast skill advancing with newer generation modeling systems? and Is the potential predictability of U.S. seasonal forecasts being fully realized? The skill and predictability addressed in our study is that resulting principally from air-sea interactions and the accompanying atmospheric teleconnections linking U.S. climate with sea surface temperatures. We focus on deterministic measures of that skill, using a temporal anomaly correlation metric for the 20-yr verification period.
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (3309)
DE: 1635 Oceans (4203)
DE: 3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312, 4504)
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly