HR: 08:30h
AN: A21B-01    [Abstracts]
TI: Reanalysis and the Climate Change Science Program
AU: * Schubert, S
EM: siegfried.d.schubert@nasa.gov
AF: Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD 20771 United States
AU: Kumar, A
EM: arun.kumar@noaa.gov
AF: CLimate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA,
AU: Arkin, P
EM: parkin@essic.umd.edu
AF: Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland,
AU: Bosilovich, M
EM: michael.bosilovich@nasa.gov
AF: Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD 20771 United States
AU: White, G
EM: glenn.white@noaa.gov
AF: Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA,
AB: One of the key early deliverables of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is a synthesis and assessment report on "Reanalyses of historical climate data for key atmospheric features; implications for attribution of causes of observed change". The significance of this deliverable is in the premise that "understanding the magnitude of past climate variations is key to increasing confidence in the understanding of how and why climate has changed and why it may change in the future". One component of the deliverable is a summary report on the current generation of re-analysis of historical climate data. The summary report will address such questions as: What aspects of climate trends do different re-analysis agree and disagree on? How do different re-analysis products compare to other independent assessments of climate variability and trends? What discontinuities and spurious trends and variability exist in the current generation of reanalysis products and for what reasons? How are global and regional climate trends and variability in surface temperature and precipitation related to trends in atmospheric circulation? What are the uncertainties in the current generation of re-analysis products and how can they be minimized. In this presentation, we review our current understanding of some of these issues. In particular, we will examine 1) the transition to the satellite era in the middle to late 1970s, 2) the agreement between reanalyses and independent observations in the trends of surface temperature and 3) the differences in the intensity and pattern of the hydrological cycle in re-analyses and independent estimates.
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (3309)
DE: 3319 General circulation
DE: 3337 Numerical modeling and data assimilation
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly