HR: 11:30h
AN: A22A-03    [Abstracts]
TI: Attribution studies for understanding late 20th climate trends in the Sahel: Regional climate model simulation using NCEP Reanalysis (1960-2002)
AU: * Jenkins, G S
EM: gjenkins@howard.edu
AF: Howard University, Department of Physics and Astronomy 105 Thirkield building, Washington, DC 20059 United States
AU: Sylla, B
EM: syllabamba@yahoo.com
AF: Cheikh Anta Diop University, Laboratory for Atmospheric Physics-Simeon Fongang BP 5085, Dakar, PA 16802 Senegal
AU: Gaye, A T
EM: atgaye@ucad.sn
AF: Cheikh Anta Diop University, Laboratory for Atmospheric Physics-Simeon Fongang BP 5085, Dakar, PA 16802 Senegal
AB: Regional climate model simulations have been conducted in order to simulated the wet period during 1960s and shift toward drier conditions after the early 1970s. The regional model is driven by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis meteorological field as the lateral boundaries and observed sea surface temperatures from the Hadley Centre are used during this period (1960-2002). The regional climate model simulates West African Climate (1961-1990 mean) fairly well, but slightly underestimates precipitation rates during the summer season. There is also a cold bias over the guinea region and the Sahara Desert is too warm. The African Easterly Jet and Tropical Easterly Jet are captured in the regional climate model simulation. The regional model also captures the trend towards drier conditions beginning in the early 1970s. Given that the model is forced with unaltered vegetation and fixed anthropogenic forcing the results strongly suggests that the trend towards drier conditions was associated with large-scale forcing outside of the domain. In this presentation we also suggests what these results imply for 21st century climate change in West Africa.
DE: 3300 METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS
DE: 3309 Climatology (1620)
DE: 3329 Mesoscale meteorology
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly