HR: 11:45h
AN: A32A-06 [Abstracts]
TI: A Study of Extreme Events in Subseasonal Forecasts Made by a High Resolution Version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System
AU: * Saha, S
EM: Suranjana.Saha@noaa.gov
AF: Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA/NWS, NOAA Science Center
, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AU: Vandendool, H M
EM: Huug.Vandendool@noaa.gov
AF: Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA/NWS, NOAA Science Center, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AU: Johansson, A
EM: Ake.Johansson@noaa.gov
AF: Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA/NWS, NOAA Science Center
, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AU: Vintzileos, A
EM: Augustin.Vinzileos@noaa.gov
AF: Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA/NWS, NOAA Science Center
, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AU: Pan, H
EM: Hualu.pan@noaa.gov
AF: Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA/NWS, NOAA Science Center
, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AU: Thiaw, C
EM: Catherine.Thiaw@noaa.gov
AF: Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA/NWS, NOAA Science Center
, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AB:
Extreme events in nature are of great importance due to their societal impact. For any numerical model, there is an obvious
question about skill in predicting such extremes. In addition, due to the brevity of observational records, and the
assumption that models are a good proxy for reality, we may learn more about extremes from a study of a long series of
integrations by these models. Here we investigate the impact of increasing horizontal resolution on the prediction of
extremes in a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-land model, which has a high vertical resolution atmospheric component. A series of retrospective forecasts, each integrated over a period of 60+ days during the 1997 to 2004 timeframe with the new NCEP
Climate Forecast System are studied for the occurrence of, and the skill in predicting, extreme events. In addition to the
question of deterministic predictability out to 2 or 3 weeks, these forecasts, beyond two weeks, provide an opportunity to
study the occurrence of extreme events in climate models.
DE: 1812 Drought
DE: 1821 Floods
DE: 3309 Climatology (1620)
DE: 3319 General circulation
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly