HR: 0830h
AN: A41B-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Simulation of Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Modes of Variability in Subseasonal Forecasts of the NCEP Climate Forecast System
AU: * Johansson, A S
EM: Ake.Johasson@noaa.gov
AF: Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, NOAA Science Center 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AU: Saha, S
EM: Suranjana.Saha@noaa.gov
AF: Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, NOAA Science Center 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AU: Vandendool, H M
EM: Huug.Vandendool@noaa.gov
AF: Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, NOAA Science Center 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AU: Vintzileos, A
EM: Augustin.Vintzileos@noaa.gov
AF: Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, NOAA Science Center 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AU: Pan, H
EM: Hualu.Pan@noaa.gov
AF: Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, NOAA Science Center 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AU: Thiaw, C
EM: Catherine.Thiaw@noaa.gov
AF: Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, NOAA Science Center 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AB: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection patterns constitute important modes of variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical atmosphere. Together they explain progressively more amount of variability as the averaging period is increased. They therefore become relatively more important in the sub seasonal time range (from 1-2 weeks up to a season) compared to daily forecasting. We will compare and contrast the observed three-dimensional structure of these modes with those obtained in a GCM. Here we investigate the impact of increasing horizontal resolution on the prediction of these climate modes in a fully coupled ocean-land-atmosphere model, which has a high vertical resolution atmospheric component. A series of retrospective forecasts, each integrated over a period of 60+ days during the 1997 to 2004 timeframe with the new NCEP Climate Forecast System are studied for the skill in predicting these patterns. The first two weeks of these integrations can be used to study prediction skill and predictability. The two and three-dimensional structure of the PNA and NAO will also be tracked beyond 2 weeks.
DE: 3309 Climatology (1620)
DE: 3319 General circulation
DE: 3337 Numerical modeling and data assimilation
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly