HR: 0830h
AN: A41C-01    [Abstracts]
TI: North Atlantic Oscillation: The Non-Linear Aspect and Its Long-Range Prediction
AU: * Chen, W Y
EM: wilbur.chen@noaa.gov
AF: Climate Prediction Center, 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20233 United States
AB: The current prediction skill on seasonal to inter-annual time-scales is only marginal, yielding around 0.15 in anomaly correlation metric. The climate variability models are not performing better. How to achieve a breakthrough in long-range prediction is the goal of this investigation. Instead of the conventional linear and statistical thinking, our new approach focuses on non-linear characteristics and physical understanding. A reduction of the intertwined high-dimensional atmospheric state to a few manageable climatic circulation regimes is found to be a crucial consideration in improving the long-range predictions. For 1-yr lead forecast of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is known to be extremely difficulty owing to its being composed of mostly natural variability, the present innovative approach is able to yield an average anomaly correlation skill of about 0.27. Cross-validation has been carefully exercised during this study.
DE: 1600 GLOBAL CHANGE (New category)
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (3309)
DE: 1630 Impact phenomena
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly