HR: 14:05h
AN: A43B-03    [Abstracts]
TI: Variability, predictability and prediction of DJF climate in NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS)
AU: * Peng, P
EM: Peitao.Peng@noaa.gov
AF: NCEP/NOAA, 5200 Auth Rd, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AU: Zhang, Q
EM: Qin.Zhang@noaa.gov
AF: NCEP/NOAA, 5200 Auth Rd, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AU: Kumar, A
EM: Arun.Kumar@noaa.gov
AF: NCEP/NOAA, 5200 Auth Rd, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AU: van den Dool, H
AF: NCEP/NOAA, 5200 Auth Rd, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AU: Wang, W
EM: Wanqui.Wang@noaa.gov
AF: NCEP/NOAA, 5200 Auth Rd, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AU: Saha, S
AF: NCEP/NOAA, 5200 Auth Rd, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AU: Pan, H
AF: NCEP/NOAA, 5200 Auth Rd, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AB: A big achievement of NCEP in 2004 is the implementation of a new climate forecast system (CFS) for seasonal and inter-annual climate forecast. The CFS is a fully coupled global ocean, land and atmosphere model. Its modest climate drift makes "1-tiered" climate prediction practical. A set of 24-year retrospective forecasts was made for evaluating the CFS forecast skill. With this retrospective forecast data, we have further investigated the following issues: (1) the extent of CFS climate drift in seasonal forecast and the tropics-extratropic connections in the climate drift; (2) variability and predictability of seasonal climate in the coupled system; (3) characteristics of ENSO related climate anomalies in CFS forecasts; (4) the actual and the potential (or upper limit) of the CFS forecast skill. The results of this study not only provide a comprehensive evaluation of the CFS, but also help to advance our understanding of climate variability and predictability. Some results are even valuable to indicate avenues of model improvement.
DE: 0325 Evolution of the atmosphere
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (3309)
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly