HR: 14:35h
AN: A43B-05    [Abstracts]
TI: ENACT : Advanced ocean data assimilation for seasonal forecasting
AU: * Huddleston, M R
EM: matt.huddleston@metoffice.gov.uk
AF: Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB United Kingdom
AU: Davey, M
EM: mike.davey@metoffice.gov.uk
AF: Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB United Kingdom
AB: A comprehensive set of multi-decadal ocean analysis is now available as part of the recently completed European Commission ENACT (Enhanced ocean data Assimilation and Climate predicTion) programme. These were produced using different ocean models and data assimilation techniques but the same atmospheric fluxes and observations. The aim was to produce a comprehensive assessment of the mean ocean state and its variability and assess the benefit of using advanced assimilation schemes (3D and 4D variational methods and ensemble Kalman filters) for initialising coupled seasonal forecast models. The ability of several of these analyses to initialise ensemble based CGCM seasonal forecasting systems has been assessed. Whilst benefits can be found in some regions and for some seasons, it is clear that forecast model errors can overshadow improvements gained from the advanced ocean assimilation. This has implications for the tuning of the ocean data assimilation schemes but also calls for a better understanding and handling of model initialisation shock and CGCM forecast drift.
UR: http://www.lodyc.jussieu.fr/ENACT/
DE: 1635 Oceans (4203)
DE: 3309 Climatology (1620)
DE: 3337 Numerical modeling and data assimilation
DE: 3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312, 4504)
DE: 4263 Ocean prediction
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly