HR: 15:45h
AN: A44A-02    [Abstracts]
TI: On the Interpretation of Skill Information for Seasonal Climate Predictions
AU: * Kumar, A
EM: arun.kumar@noaa.gov
AF: Climate Prediction Center, 5200 Auth Road,, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AB: Based on the analysis of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations, certain caveats inherent in the estimates of seasonal prediction skill from the past performance of seasonal forecasts will be highlighted. These include: (1) the stability of estimated skill depends on the length of the time-series over which seasonal forecasts are verified, leading to possible scenarios where error bars on the estimated skill could be as large as skill itself, particularly in the extratropical latitudes. (2) A single estimate of skill obtained from the verification over a given forecast time-series, due to variation in signal-to-noise ratio from one year to another, may not be representative of seasonal prediction skill on a case-by-case basis. It is hoped that the analysis presented will lead to further dialogue on the interpretation, presentation, and utilization of skill information for seasonal prediction efforts.
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (3309)
DE: 3309 Climatology (1620)
DE: 3319 General circulation
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly