HR: 09:45h
AN: A51B-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Global Health Benefits from Reductions in Background Tropospheric Ozone due to Methane Emission Controls
AU: * West, J J
EM: jwest@princeton.edu
AF: Program in Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences , Princeton University Sayre Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544 United States
AU: * West, J J
EM: jwest@princeton.edu
AF: Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs, Princeton University Robertson Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544 United States
AU: Mauzerall, D L
EM: mauzeral@princeton.edu
AF: Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs, Princeton University Robertson Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544 United States
AU: Fiore, A M
EM: arlene.fiore@noaa.gov
AF: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Rd., Princeton, NJ 08542 United States
AU: Horowitz, L W
EM: larry.horowitz@noaa.gov
AF: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Rd., Princeton, NJ 08542 United States
AB: Increases in background ozone throughout the troposphere are partially attributed to rising anthropogenic methane concentrations, which are projected to continue to increase in the future. Because methane is long-lived and affects background ozone, controls on methane emissions would reduce surface ozone concentrations fairly uniformly around the globe. Epidemiological research indicates that exposure to ozone increases incidence of respiratory ailments and premature mortality. In addition, exposure to ozone reduces agricultural yields and damages natural ecosystems. We use the MOZART-2 global atmospheric chemistry and transport model to estimate the effects on global surface ozone of perturbations in methane emissions. We consider a baseline scenario for 2000 and the 2030 A2 scenario (emissions from the IPCC AR-4 2030 atmospheric chemistry experiments), and examine the impact on ozone of decreasing anthropogenic methane emissions relative to this baseline by 20%. Using the simulated spatially-distributed decreases in surface ozone concentrations resulting from these reductions in methane emissions, we estimate the global benefits to human health in the methane emission reduction scenario. We focus on human mortality, and consider the sensitivity of our estimates to different assumptions of health effect thresholds at low ozone concentrations.
DE: 0300 ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE
DE: 0345 Pollution--urban and regional (0305)
DE: 0368 Troposphere--constituent transport and chemistry
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
DE: 6300 POLICY SCIENCES
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly