HR: 0830h
AN: GC41A-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Evaluating the Impacts of Climate variability on Agriculture: an integrated modeling approach
AU: * Ahmad, S
EM: sajjad@miami.edu
AF: University of Miami, Department of Civil, Architectural & Environmental Engineering 1251 Memorial Dr., Coral Gables, FL 33124 United States
AU: Miralles-Wilhelm, F R
EM: fmiralles@miami.edu
AF: University of Miami, Department of Civil, Architectural & Environmental Engineering 1251 Memorial Dr., Coral Gables, FL 33124 United States
AU: Podest , G P
EM: gpodesta@rsmas.miami.edu
AF: University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149 United States
AU: Broad, K
EM: kbroad@rsmas.miami.edu
AF: University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149 United States
AU: Letson, D
EM: dletson@rsmas.miami.edu
AF: University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149 United States
AB: Climate variability is just one factor that affects agriculture, other factors such as socio-economic conditions, demographic changes, land use and land cover changes, and water allocation policies also have significant impacts. In this research, the exposure of Florida agriculture to multiple stresses is analyzed using an integrated modeling approach, based on system dynamics modeling principles. The model consists of five interacting sectors of population, land use, water use, pollution and economy. Land use is further divided into urban/industrial, farmland, commercial forest, and state forest. Water use consists of demand for domestic, industrial, agricultural, environmental, and recreational purposes. The framework of the model is described, and the results of alternate policy runs and a sensitivity analysis are presented. The integrated model is used to explore three policy scenarios. First, we explore if current trends of demographic change, water use and land use continue, what will happen under different climate variability scenarios (i.e., change in temperature and precipitation, both in time and space). Second, we explore scenarios with changes in water demand and supply through adding desalinization plants, reducing water losses, preserving water through efficient use, changing crop variety and pattern, and importing virtual water. Third, we explore scenarios based on land use changes considering land allocation for alternate uses (e.g., changing commercial forest to agricultural use) and changing land use within certain category (e.g., different crops within agricultural land use). The research advances work on estimating the impacts of climate variability on agriculture by considering dynamic interaction among multiple influencing factors. The results should help agencies involved in management of agriculture and water resources in Florida to develop policies for sustainable management of these resources.
DE: 6300 POLICY SCIENCES
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
DE: 6334 Regional planning
DE: 6620 Science policy
SC: Global Climate Change [GC]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly