HR: 1330h
AN: H23A-19 [Abstracts]
TI: Using Surface Humidity Measurement to Estimate Atmospheric Moisture Availability for Extreme Rainstorms
AU: Chen, L
EM: li-chuan-chen@uiowa.edu
AF: IIHR - Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, 100 C. Maxwell Stanley Hydraulics
Laboratory, Iowa City, IA 52242-1585 United States
AU: * Bradley, A
EM: allen-bradley@uiowa.edu
AF: IIHR - Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, 100 C. Maxwell Stanley Hydraulics
Laboratory, Iowa City, IA 52242-1585 United States
AB:
Surface humidity measurements are used to estimate atmospheric moisture availability for Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimation. In particular, a pseudo-adiabatic dewpoint profile is assumed to estimate precipitable water from surface
12-hour persisting dewpoint. This assumption is employed in estimating both the precipitable water for observed extreme
rainstorms, and the maximum possible precipitable water used for scaling observed rainfall to reflect maximum conditions (a
concept known as moisture maximization). This assumption was reevaluated using pairs of radiosonde and surface airways
observations for the central United States. The results show the deficiencies in estimating atmospheric moisture
availability using surface humidity measurements with this approach. The pseudo-adiabatic assumption systematically
overestimates precipitable water for observed extreme rainstorms; the overestimation of maximum moisture conditions is even
greater. As a result, the PMP estimate based on the moisture maximization concept is larger than expected based on the
empirical assessment of atmospheric moisture availability. To assess the overestimation of PMP estimates, a natural
logarithm formula was derived from a 23-year climatology of maximum precipitable water and 12-hr persisting dewpoint, to
better represent moisture conditions for extreme conditions. Using the proposed formula for moisture maximization suggests
that the pseudo-adiabatic assumption overestimates PMP by about 6% on average.
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 1854 Precipitation (3354)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly