HR: 13:45h
AN: H43E-02    [Abstracts]
TI: Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Based on Ensemble Reforecasts
AU: * Whitaker, J
EM: jeffrey.s.whitaker@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center, 325 Broadway R/CDC1, Boulder, CO 80305 United States
AU: Hamill, T
EM: tom.hamill@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center, 325 Broadway R/CDC1, Boulder, CO 80305 United States
AB: We explore how probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) can be improved through judicious calibration of the current ensemble weather forecast using a long training data set of retrospective forecasts (reforecasts). The Climate Diagnostics Center of NOAA has developed a 25-year retrospective database of 2-week, 15-member ensemble weather forecasts, all run with the same weather forecast model throughout the 25 years. This provides a long-term, stable database of weather forecasts from which systematic errors can be diagnosed and corrected.
DE: 2447 Modeling and forecasting
DE: 3354 Precipitation (1854)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly