HR: 16:55h
AN: H44B-06    [Abstracts]
TI: A Correction to GLUE: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation
AU: * Batchelder, R B
EM: rebeccabatchelder@yahoo.com
AF: Tufts University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Medford, MA 02155 United States
AU: Vogel, R M
EM: richard.vogel@tufts.edu
AF: Cornell University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Hollister Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-3501 United States
AU: Stedinger, J R
EM: jrs5@cornell.edu
AF: Tufts University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Medford, MA 02155 United States
AB: The widely accepted GLUE approach to describing the impact of parameter uncertainty in rainfall/runoff models produces confidence intervals for model predictions that are generally incorrect. We document this phenomenon using a case when the rainfall/runoff model is a simple linear regression. Beven (1992) has suggested that the choice of the likelihood function used in GLUE is subjective and may change depending upon the goals of the modeler. We observe why the choice of likelihood functions is not arbitrary, but rather the correct likelihood function depends upon the assumed distribution of the model errors. We show how the GLUE methodology can be adapted to provide the variance of model predictions and confidence intervals for model predictions that will agree with approaches based on classical statistics.
DE: 1860 Runoff and streamflow
DE: 1869 Stochastic processes
DE: 1899 General or miscellaneous
DE: 9820 Techniques applicable in three or more fields
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly