HR: 0830h
AN: H51D-01    [Abstracts]
TI: A Proposed Hydrologic Basins Project for HEPEX and THORPEX: a Joint Hydrological Ensemble Research Activity
AU: * Schaake, J
EM: john.schaake@noaa.gov
AF: National weather Service, 1325 East West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910 United States
AB: The main objective of HEPEX is to bring the international hydrological community together with the meteorological community to demonstrate how to produce reliable hydrological ensemble forecasts that can be used with confidence to make decisions that have important consequences for the economy and for public health and safety. Key science issues to meet this objective involve development of reliable ensemble forecasts of future weather and climate events, estimation of ensemble initial conditions, accounting for uncertainty in hydrologic processes and post-processing to produce reliable hydrologic ensemble forecasts. The THORPEX program, organized through WMO, is directed towards accelerating improvements in 1-14 day weather forecasts for the benefit of society and the economy. One key part of the THORPEX plan is the establishment of a THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). This will provide a framework for international collaboration on the development of ensemble prediction for NWP, create a multi-model ensemble database as a resource for THORPEX researchers, and constitute a facility to test the idea of a "future global interactive multi-model ensemble forecast system, which would generate numerical probabilistic products, available to all WMO Members. One way to P.I. oriented research to link the THORPEX and HEPEX activities might be to develop an international hydrological basins data set that would contain historical hydrometerological observations and forecasts and the would be updated periodically with new observations and forecasts, including ensemble forecasts from TIGGE. An initial source of hydrological basins data is a data set produced by the MOPEX (Model Parameter Estimation Experiment) that established to aid in the development of techniques for the a priori estimation of parameters used in land surface parameterization schemes of atmospheric and hydrological models. This presentation will suggest some of the research opportunities that this proposed hydrological basins data set would support.
DE: 1854 Precipitation (3354)
DE: 1860 Runoff and streamflow
DE: 1869 Stochastic processes
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly