HR: 08:45h
AN: H51F-02    [Abstracts]
TI: Weather and Climate Prediction for the North American Monsoon
AU: * Krishnamurti, T N
EM: tnk@io.met.fsu.edu
AF: Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306 United States
AU: Chakraborty, A
EM: arch@io.met.fsu.edu
AF: Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306 United States
AB: Some of the major elements of the North American monsoon include the onset and seasonal behavior of precipitation, the moisture sources, orographic responses, effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Gulf of Mexico, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, and the teleconnection with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). This study addresses these issues on the medium range (a week) to seasonal (3 month) time scales. Our approach is one of constructing ensemble forecasts that include 11 weather models for the medium range and 13 coupled atmosphere-ocean models for seasonal time scales. The metrics for forecasts evaluation include deterministic measures such as RMS error and anomaly correlation, and probabilistic measures such as the equitable threat scores and Briar skill scores. The ensemble forecast approach includes a conventional FSU superensemble for weather and a variant called the synthetic superensemble for the seasonal climate. These superensemble strings covering a 13-year period show that it is possible to predict some of the important features of the North American monsoon at a higher skill with the superensemble compared to the participating member models.
DE: 1854 Precipitation (3354)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly