HR: 1330h
AN: NB33E-14 [Abstracts]
TI: Long-term Environmental Observatories as Predictors of Regional Environmental Change: An Oregon Example
AU: * Ashkenas, L
EM: linda.ashkenas@oregonstate.edu
AF: Dept. of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, 104 Nash Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331 United States
AU: Gregory, S
EM: stanley.gregory@oregonstate.edu
AF: Dept. of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, 104 Nash Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331 United States
AU: Van Sickle, J
EM: vansickle.john@epa.gov
AF: Western Ecology Division, NHEERL, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 200 SW 35th Street, Corvallis,
OR 97331 United States
AB:
Predictions of future environmental change often rest on long-term datasets collected in reference areas. However, many
current landscape conversions occur on very different portions of the landscape than these sites. Can information from
localized reference sites be used to predict regional environmental changes? We compared results from three nested
watersheds: a small reference basin, the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest (a Long-Term Ecological Research site, 64
km2), the McKenzie (3465 km2) and the Willamette (29727 km2) for past (1850, pre-Euroamerican settlement),
present, and three alternate futures in 2050. Based on empirical field studies, we modeled changes to aquatic and riparian
indicators, such as numbers and potential habitat of cutthroat trout, and riparian cover type. The relatively small,
homogenous reference observatory was a poor predictor of more complex landscapes. For example, between 1850 and 1990,
cutthroat trout habitat declined 50% in the Willamette, 19% in the McKenzie, but only 10% in the H.J. Andrews. Regional
networks of observatories ideally should consist of (1) relatively pristine reference areas used to elucidate fundamental
local ecological processes, (2) extensively altered sites, and (3) locations on the periphery of rapidly changing portions of the landscape where future intensive impacts, such as landscape conversion, are probable.
DE: 9810 New fields (not classifiable under other headings)
SC: North American Benthological Society [NB]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly