HR: 16:00h
AN: OS34A-03    [Abstracts]
TI: Realtime Forecast of Hurricane Ivan's Storm Surge
AU: * Peggion, G
EM: gpeggion@uno.edu
AF: University of New Orleans, Dept. of Physics 2000 Lakeshore Drive, New Orleans, LA 70112 United States
AU: Barron, C N
EM: barron@nrlssc.navy.mil
AF: Naval Research Laboratory, Code 7323, Stennis Space Center, MS 39529 United States
AB: The SEED observational program (see in this session) will serve as a validation data set for a realtime ocean prediction system developed at NRL in support of naval operations. Based on the Naval Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), the portable system is easily and rapidly relocatable. Using the system, analysis and prediction can be produced for any part of the word, usually within six hours of the request. The system has the capability of multiple 1-way nesting domains. The open boundary conditions for the outer nest are usually extracted from a global version of NCOM with approximately 1/8° midlatitude resolution that is operational at the Naval Oceanographic Office. A preliminary configuration for the SEED data-model comparison is comprised of an outer nest for the GOM at about 5 km resolution and an inner domain for the Mississippi Bight at about 1.5km resolution. The system started running in a pseudo-operational mode (realtime forecast with forecasted winds) on August 15 2004. Therefore, we were able to model in realtime the effects of Hurricane Ivan on the GOM and coastal area. The model was able to predict the storm surge in the Mississippi Bight, but the representation of the location and time of the Ivan landfall was affected by errors in the forecasted winds.
DE: 4223 Descriptive and regional oceanography
DE: 4255 Numerical modeling
DE: 4263 Ocean prediction
DE: 4279 Upwelling and convergences
DE: 4564 Tsunamis and storm surges
SC: Ocean Sciences [OS]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly