HR: 08:30h
AN: SA11A-01 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: The October 28, 2003 and Nov 7, 2004 CME Events: A Data-Driven MHD Model and Comparative Impact Scenarios
AU: * Roussev, I I
EM: iroussev@umich.edu
AF: Center for Space Environment Modeling, Space Research Building, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 United States
AU: Sokolov, I V
EM: igorsok@umich.edu
AF: Center for Space Environment Modeling, Space Research Building, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 United States
AU: Liu, Y
EM: yliu@quake.stanford.edu
AF: W. W. Hansen Experimental Physics Lab, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 United States
AU: Elliott, H
EM: heather.elliott@swri.org
AF: Southwest Research Institute, 6220 Culebra, San Antonio, TX 78238 United States
AU: Gombosi, T I
EM: tamas@umich.edu
AF: Center for Space Environment Modeling, Space Research Building, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 United States
AU: Skoug, R
EM: rskoug@lanl.gov
AF: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Bikini Atoll Rd, Los Alamos, NM 87545 United States
AB: In the "Halloween Epic" of late October and early November of 2003, active regions 10484, 10486, and 10488 produced some of the most intense flare activity, powerful CMEs and associated geomagnetic storms during Solar Cycle 23. While each of these regions was remarkable in size and magnetic complexity, AR 10486 -- the largest sunspot group observed since November 1990 -- was by far the most significant. This active region maintained its extreme size, complex magnetic structure, and great eruption potential during its entire transit across the visible solar disk. Of the twelve major events that produced X-class flares, three stand out as defining events: the X17.2 event on Oct 28, the X8.3 event on Nov 2, and the X28+ event on Nov 4. In this paper, we present a recent numerical effort to model the Halloween Event from Oct 28, which was associated with an erupting prominence in AR 10486. We developed a data-driven MHD model of the solar eruption, and we studied the onset and dynamics of the CME and related shock wave in the low corona and interplanetary space. In our model, we adopted high-resolution magnetic data from MDI onboard SoHO to set a realistic boundary condition for the radial magnetic field at the Sun. The CME is triggered by slowly evolving the boundary conditions for the coupled tangential magnetic field and tangential plasma velocity at the solar surface up to a point when the MHD equilibrium of the prominence with the surrounding coronal field is no longer attainable. As a result of the loss of mechanical equilibrium, the prominence erupts, resembling a CME. We also compare interplanetary characteristics of the Oct 28, 2003 and Nov 7, 2004 events, considering a variety of CME impact scenarios by tracking different angular positions in the simulated CME.
DE: 7513 Coronal mass ejections
DE: 7524 Magnetic fields
DE: 7531 Prominence eruptions
DE: 7819 Experimental and mathematical techniques
DE: 7843 Numerical simulation studies
SC: SPA-Aeronomy [SA]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly