HR: 1330h
AN: SA13A-12    [Abstracts]
TI: Kp forecast models
AU: * Wing, S
EM: simon.wing@jhuapl.edu
AF: The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723 United States
AU: Johnson, J R
EM: jrj@pppl.gov
AF: Princeton University Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, Princeton, NJ United States
AU: Meng, C
EM: ching.meng@jhuapl.edu
AF: The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723 United States
AU: Takahashi, K
EM: kazue.takahashi@jhuapl.edu
AF: The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723 United States
AB: Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely the times when such predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Langrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. To satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) a model that inputs nowcast Kp and solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead; (2) a model with the same input as model 1 and predicts Kp 4 hr ahead; and (3) a model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor.) Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that, while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. Information dynamics analysis of Kp, suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics near solar minimum than near solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).
DE: 2447 Modeling and forecasting
DE: 2722 Forecasting
DE: 2740 Magnetospheric configuration and dynamics
DE: 2784 Solar wind/magnetosphere interactions
DE: 2799 General or miscellaneous
SC: SPA-Aeronomy [SA]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly