HR: 1330h
AN: SH23B-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Estimation of TSI Variability During the Declining Phase of Cycle 23
AU: * White, O R
EM: orw@hao.ucar.edu
AF: NCAR High Altitude Obs., 3450 Mitchell Lane, BOULDER, CO 80301 United States
AU: de Toma, G
EM: detoma@hao.ucar.edu
AF: NCAR High Altitude Obs., 3450 Mitchell Lane, BOULDER, CO 80301 United States
AB: Our previous study gave an empirical model with only two solar activity indices that reproduced TSI measurements from 1996 to 2003 in Cycle 23 to within 100 ppm rms (de Toma et al., 2004). The indices used in the model are: a photometric index derived from full-disk images in the red continuum at 672.3nm taken at San Fernando Solar Observatory (the Sigma-red index) and a chromospheric index based on irradiance measurements in the MgII doublet at 280nm (the MgII core/wing index). Here, we recompute the empirical model using the latest VIRGO TSI measurements during the rising and maximum phase of Cycle 23 and compute TSI estimates from the maximum of Cycle 23 toward the next minimum. Comparison between extrapolations of the model and TSI observations gives insight on the predictive capability of the model.
DE: 7500 SOLAR PHYSICS, ASTROPHYSICS, AND ASTRONOMY
DE: 7536 Solar activity cycle (2162)
DE: 7537 Solar and stellar variability
DE: 7538 Solar irradiance
SC: SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics [SH]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly