HR: 1330h
AN: SH53A-09    [Abstracts]
TI: Improved Empirical CME Arrival Time Model Via Cone Model
AU: * Xie, H
EM: hong@lepvax.gsfc.nasa.gov
AF: Catholic University of America, 620 Michigan Ave., N.E., Washinton, D.C., 20064 United States
AU: * Xie, H
EM: hong@lepvax.gsfc.nasa.gov
AF: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 695, Greenbelt, MD 20771 United States
AU: Gopalswamy, N
EM: gopals@fugee.gsfc.nasa.gov
AF: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 695, Greenbelt, MD 20771 United States
AU: Ofman, L
EM: leon.ofman@gsfc.nasa.gov
AF: Catholic University of America, 620 Michigan Ave., N.E., Washinton, D.C., 20064 United States
AU: Ofman, L
EM: leon.ofman@gsfc.nasa.gov
AF: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 695, Greenbelt, MD 20771 United States
AU: Michalek, G
EM: michalek@oa.uj.edu.pl
AF: Astronomical Observatory of Jagiellonian University, Astronomical Observatory, Cracow, Poland
AU: Lara, A
EM: alara@kin.igeofcu.unam.mx
AF: Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, Instituto de Geofisica, Mexico City, Mexico
AU: Yashiro, S
EM: yashiro@cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov
AF: Catholic University of America, 620 Michigan Ave., N.E., Washinton, D.C., 20064 United States
AU: Yashiro, S
EM: yashiro@cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov
AF: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 695, Greenbelt, MD 20771 United States
AB: In this study, we compare the results obtained from two cone models and carry out the statistical study of the distribution of the actual size and space speed of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). We improved the existing empirical CME arrival (ECA) model, based on previously developed empirical models and provided the prediction of CME transit time from the Sun to the Earth. The previous ECA model was in good agreement with the observations for high-speed CMEs. However, the agreement was not as good for low-speed events. One of possible reasons may be due to errors caused by the significant scatter of CME projection speeds in low projected-speed events. Using the cone models we reduced the errors and improved the accuracy of the ECA model by applying the cone models to halo CMEs erupted from near disk center of the Sun (within < 30 deg.) to determine the actual speed. We found that both cone models provide similar improved accuracy for the arrival time.
DE: 2111 Ejecta, driver gases, and magnetic clouds
DE: 2139 Interplanetary shocks
DE: 7513 Coronal mass ejections
DE: 7519 Flares
SC: SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics [SH]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly