HR: 1330h
AN: SP23A-01 [Abstracts]
TI: Towards Real-Time Automated Prediction of Geo-Magnetic Storms Based on Observations of Source Regions of Halo CMEs
AU: * Song, H
EM: hxs6800@njit.edu
AF: Center for Solar-Terrestrial Research, New Jersey Institute of Technology, 323 Martin Luther King Blvd, Newark, NJ 07102 United States
AU: Yurchyshyn, V
EM: vayur@bbso.njit.edu
AF: Big Bear Solar Observatory, 40386 North Shore Lane, Big Bear City, CA 92314 United States
AU: Wang, H
EM: haimin@flare.njit.edu
AF: Center for Solar-Terrestrial Research, New Jersey Institute of Technology, 323 Martin Luther King Blvd, Newark, NJ 07102 United States
AU: Wang, H
EM: haimin@flare.njit.edu
AF: Big Bear Solar Observatory, 40386 North Shore Lane, Big Bear City, CA 92314 United States
AB:
Halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), originating near disk center, are possible sources of large geomagnetic storms. Our goal
is to predict geomagnetic activities automatically and in real time based on the observations of source regions of CMEs. We
have achieved the following two steps: (1) We studied the magnetic structure of a number of famous active regions that
produced large flares (X5 or larger), and found a close correlation between magnetic gradient and magnetic shear; and
magnetic gradient could be even a better proxy to predict where a major flare might occur. Therefore, we can avoid
complication of using vector magnetograms to derive magnetic shear. (2) We investigated the relationship between
geoeffectiveness and the orientation of magnetic field in source active regions. Based on the flaring neutral lines detected
by step (1), we extrapolated the magnetic structure in active region with three-dimensional (3D) numerical models. We started with the potential field model. We attempt to find relationship between the the orientation of magnetic field in the source region and the hourly averaged ACE measurements of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic fields, that is believed
to be the indicator of geomagnetic storms.
DE: 7513 Coronal mass ejections
DE: 7524 Magnetic fields
SC: Solar Physics Division - AAS [SP]
MN: 2005 Joint Assembly