GC22A-01
Territorial Manifestations of the Economical Influence Areas of Global Warming and Climate Change
Economic space is structured by the relationship between the anthropogenic and economic factors, with a dynamical evolution defined by the financial flows around the world and technology evolution. The global warming and the climate change are two different processes associated on the planet, due to different etiologies: the global warming is produced principally by anthropogenic effects, whereas the climate change its produced by physics and natural process on global earth system. Both phenomena produce economic impacts and territorial manifestation on the earth surface, which are different at different territorial scales, but with important influence on human activity. In this work, we carry out an holistic research (global impacts to the economy space) about the physical processes and anthropogenic impacts that affect directly on the climate change and global warming respectively, with territorial manifestations using geographic scales. We propose a classification on this territorial manifestations, according with the economical effects by the international trade and production of GHG´s in the world (global warming). The results of this research show that the global warming generates territorial manifestations, according with the three sectors of the world economy. We construct maps of influence areas of economic activity which have been affected in different ways by the Climatic Change and Global warming.
GC22A-02
Climatic Action Plan Project for the state of Veracruz (Mexico)
With financing of the British Government and support of the National Institute of Ecology, from April of 2006 to March of 2008 an action plan which intends variability effects and climatic change for the state of Veracruz will be made. This plan will be taken to the state government and will be spread out to manufacturers, industrialists and population. Throughout the Gulf of Mexico, the state of Veracruz is a 745 km coast in length with a width that goes from 156 km in the center to 47 km in the north. The state has large mountains, forests, plains, rivers, cascades, lagoons and coasts. Veracruz is the 10th largest state in Mexico with a 72,420 km2 surface, it is located between 17°00' and 22°28' north latitude and between 93°95' and 98°38' west longitude. Because of the orographic effect, the Sierra Madre Oriental causes the existence of many types of climate, from dry to tropical forest, going through snow on the top of the Pico de Orizaba (5747m of altitude). The wind affects the coasts by not allowing to fish during a hundred days a year (particularly in winter), and on summer tropical waves and occasionally hurricanes affect rivers causing overflow and urban floods in fields. These phenomena do not have a regular affectation; they are subject to climate variability effects. Veracruz is the third state with most population in the country (7.1 million people in 2005), only surpassed by the state of Mexico and Mexico City. Although it occupies 3.7% of the national territory, Veracruz has 6.9% of human population in the country, and is the 6th state of PIB national contribution (240 thousands of millions pesos approximately). Of the possible effects of the climatic change the following can be expected: , , : Most of the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico, low and sandy, less of a meter on the sea level, represent the most vulnerable territory of Veracruz. Towns will be affected, the saline water will infiltrate until the phreatic mantles and the coast electrical power stations (Tuxpan and Laguna Verde) will be affected directly if they're still operating within half century. The lagoons of Alvarado and Tamiahua will be part of the sea. In heavy numbers, more than six hundred kilometers of beaches will be lost (and, of course, good part of the tourist infrastructure including Costa Esmeralda and Veracruz Boca del Río), along with more than two hundred kilometers of routes and around twenty kilometers of seaports. More than three thousand urban hectares will become floodable as two hundred thousand fields and agriculture. Because of all this, a study is proposed that considers a revision of the state's variability and climatic change in Veracruz; an inventory of GEI emissions and its respective scenes; data bases with quality control and analysis of climatic variability; regional climatic scenes (years 2025, 2050 and 2075), and scenes of vulnerability and adaptation measures, mitigation in coast affectations and coastal infrastructure, water availability, biodiversity, agriculture, human establishments and energy consumption by air conditioning of houses. Approaches of the study will be discussed and advances during the first semester of the project will appear in this presentation.
GC22A-03
Temperature Trends in Mexico as Evidence of Global Change
To assess global warming in Mexico, the temperature data of approximately 1000 stations throughout this country are analyzed. The original data set consists of daily maxima and minima temperature records spanning more than fifty years. The evolutions of annual mean temperature, of seasonal averages of minima and maxima, as well as of maximum diurnal variation are described. Positive trends of these variables are considered as potential indicators of global warming. The possibility to establish a spatial pattern of the magnitude of global warming in terms of altitude, latitude, rural or urban location, and nearness to the coast is examined.
GC22A-04
Measuring and Modeling CO2 fluxes over a Tropical Deciduous Forest
The Kyoto protocol propose to pay for carbon sequestration if that can be demonstrated besides the helping protecting and conserving the vegetation of that ecosystem. In Sonora the 18.72% is forest and the 9.33% is deciduous low forest. This will be the first investigation of this kind made in Mexico Norwest and the achievement of it, is very important for the habitants of the region since the environmental services do not include this part of the national territory in spite of its perturbation levels. This study demonstrates that the deciduous low forest is a potential candidate on CO2 sequestration. La Estrella, is a small community located in Rosario, Tesopaco, Southwest of Sonora, Mexico. In this community there is a micrometeorological tower to measure variables to model. In this model, carbon flows is related with variables such as: temperature, moisture (humidity), solar radiation, leaf area index, speed and wind direction. These variables were studied from August 2004 to December 2006, and the results showed the same relation between all these variables. The results obtained indicated that the CO2 fluxes (FCO2) are directly proportional to the temperature (Temp), solar radiation (AvgSR), leaf area index (IAF), precipitation (Rain) and relative humidity (AvgRH) and inversely proportional to wind velocity (WSK) and direction (DIR). The direct relation between FCO2 - Temp and FCO2 - solar radiation was successfully demonstrated since this phenomenon occurs at noon. While the temperature increases, and the photosynthesis process takes place, CO2 sequestration occurs. Furthermore, on the relationship between FCO2 - IAF during rainy season (jun-sept), the high results of IAF are directly related with the carbon sequestration; while higher is the IAF, the higher is the amount of CO2 that is being sequestrated. The data shows that during months with higher precipitations, from June to September, where the meteorization phenomenon is developed, the absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere and reinforcing the capture of CO2, happens. In this manner it was possible to analyze the direct relation between the FCO2-Rain and FCO2-AvgRH. On the other matter, it was possible to understand the inverse relation of FCO2-WSK, FCO2-DIR, since CO2 contained in the air wouldn't be absorbed in the possible carbon capture sources, it wouldn't be possible to happen. From our previous results, it con be concluded that FCO2 is directly related with Temperature, IAF, Rain, AvgHR and inversely proportional to WSK and DIR, on such a way that if the variables increase, FCO2 will increase too; however, if the variables are inversely proportional they will be affected and they will decrease, so FCO2 will then decrease too.
GC22A-05
Generating future Climate Scenarios for the Caribbean using PRECIS
This study examines future climate scenarios for the Caribbean, generated using the PRECIS regional modelling system. PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies) is a high resolution regional climate modelling system which has been run over a Caribbean domain at 50 km resolution. The study examines how well the model simulates the current climate, and projects climate change in the region for a 30 year time slice centred on the 2080's. Future climates are generated by forcing PRECIS at its boundaries with output from the Hadley Centres HADAM3P climate model run under the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A2 (high emissions) and B2 (medium-low emissions) scenarios. The model reasonably represents the current climatology of the region, capturing the bimodal rainfall season as well as annual and seasonal temperature patterns. An improvement in detail, especially those arriving from changes in topography, relief or surface type is one of the model's advantages i.e. when compared to similar studies done with General Circulation Models. The model projects a warmer and dryer Caribbean by the 2080's in the annual mean. The dryness is greatest in the central Caribbean basin, and temperatures are projected to be between 1 and 5 degrees warmer dependent on scenario and location. The general drying trend projected for the Caribbean basin, sees precipitation decreasing by at least 20 to 25% both in the seasonal and annual views, irrespective of the scenario. The study was the result of a collaborative effort involving three countries: Jamaica, Barbados, and Cuba.
GC22A-06
Impact on North Atlantic Winter Climate due to Changes of Greenhouse gas and Sulfate Aerosol Concentrations
This study examines the future change of the North Atlantic winter climate influenced by increased concentrations of greenhouses gases and sulfate aerosol of anthropogenic origin. The direct effect of the aerosol on the clear sky radiative forcing and its climatic impact is investigated. Indirect aerosol effects are not considered in this study. Results of different climate simulations of an ocean/atmosphere general circulation model using IS92a (business-as-usual) type forcing are presented. Comparing the simulation forced with greenhouse gases alone with the simulation including aerosol forcing suggests that the aerosol has a significant impact on hydrological cycle and dynamics. Our results illustrate a similar but weaker response if the impact of the aerosol is considered in addition to greenhouses gases. Since the radiative forcing by sulfate is negative due to the backscattering of sunlight, the warming is attenuated if the sulfate aerosol comes into play. The simulations suggest that without the direct radiative effect of the aerosol, the North Atlantic climate would be warmer by about 1.2 K in winter. This temperature reduction has been diagnosed by averaging over the region 20°N- 80°N and 90°W-60°E and is statistically significant. Evaporation and precipitation are also reduced. However, significant differences occur only over some regions, especially over the Northeastern North Atlantic. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has a reduced variability in the simulation including sulfate aerosol effects in a warming climate. There is also evidence that in this experiment fewer extreme NAO cases occur, which is associated with a reduction in storm activity and a decrease in the frequency of storm days.
GC22A-07
Dynamical consistent behaviour across spatial scales in large-ensemble climate experiments
The use of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations of climate systems in the assessment of potential impacts of future climate change is limited to the ability of the GCMs to simulate the climate and the presence of diverse uncertainty sources. A perturbed physics ensemble consists of a large number of model runs obtained by varying the GCM physical parameters within their physically acceptable range. Such an ensemble is specifically designed to sample climate-model uncertainty and provides a new ground to explore the possible range of future plausible climates. We present a methodology that looks for an optimal forecast combination of model runs. Such combination is optimal in the sense that if use to forecast then it will perform better than a forecast based only on historical records i.e. the climatology. In particular, we explore the Ignorance skill score. This score measures the amount of information produced when a forecast is performed using a combination of models compared to climatology. At the same time, assessment of the predictability of the resulting combinations is sought in a similar way as for medium-range/seasonal weather model-based forecasting. We compare global and regional results for the Global Mean Temperature (GMT), as a test case in a theoretical framework, using data sets of runs of the climateprediction.net; the largest perturbed physics climate model ensemble available up to date.
GC22A-08
Theoretical Considerations of Climatology and Climate Change
In this paper we look at the concepts of climatology (M) and climate change (C) from a theoretical point of view. In particular we examine the apparent contradiction of these two terms as they relate, in one hand, to a reference constant value (M) and, on the other hand, to a time-dependent variable (C). We define different working climatologies and their relations to climate change in order to find potential estimators of both M and C.