GC23A-01
The Impact of Human Activities in Africa, the North and South Pole Regions on Global Climate Change.
As a result of the rapid increase in the petroleum exploration, Industrial, deforestation and other human activities going on within or around the Arctic and Antarctica ice caps near or in the temperate region countries like Canada, Greenland, Russia, U.S.A (Alaska), Iceland, Finland, Argentina, Tasmania and New Zealand among many others plus the increase in deforestation activities in Tropical world countries like the Amazon of Brazil, The Tropical Rain forest of Nigeria, Zaire (Democratic Republic of Congo), Cotedvoire, Indonesia etc. in addition to the Sahara and the Kalahari deserts encouragement as a result of human factors plus the uncontrolled disposals of broken Refrigerators, Air conditioners and propellants containing chlorofluorocarbon substances capable of destroying the Ozone layer in African refuse dumps (B.Abubkar,2006) are collectively becoming a threat to the world climate. This explains why the volume of the Ocean keeps on rising, global temperature keeps ascending and the global climate is becoming abnormal since the beginning of the above mentioned activities in the above mentioned locations. It was in view of the above that this research was conducted and came up with the under listed suggestions/recommendations: 1. The temperature region countries like Canada, Russia, U.S.A, Argentina etc. should come up with polices restricting certain industries with the possibilities of causing environmental hazards from operating near the Ice Caps of the Arctic or Antarctica even in areas which the Ice was frozen thousands of years ago as the case with Greenland. 2. The research and exploration activities going on around or on the Arctic and the Antarctica regions should be carried out with utmost care and concern to the global climate. 3. The deforestation activities going on without control in most of the Tropical World Countries should be monitored by the United Nation's Specialized Agencies on forest and other related international organization in such a way that goals could be achieved without necessarily causing problems to the world climate. 4. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) should check and control the Ocean Pollutions caused as a result of the degreasing activities of the "QUAY APRONS" currently going on at the various African Sea Ports in order to protect the Ocean pollution with chemicals that can make the World's ice to be melting. 5. The International Meteorological Organization should open its offices within each region of the six continents in order to have a closer monitoring of human activities that can influence the world's climate. Organizing seminars, Conferences and Workshops on a regular basis by the United Nations and other related organizations can help in the areas of public enlightenment and the education of the rural populace who are also great contributors to the situation. The UN should use its capacity to discourage the importation of fairly used refrigerators, Air-conditioners and propellants to Africa and at the same time assist in the subsidy of the newer ones coming to Africa, so that the average African can afford buying them I believe that if the above listed suggestions/recommendations are adopted and implemented it will help in reducing these challenges threatening the entire world. Thanks for listening.
GC23A-02
Veracruz State Preliminary Greenhouse Gases Emissions Inventory
At recent years, the international organisms such as United Nations, has discussed that the temperature has increased slightly and the pattern of precipitations has changed in different parts of the world, which cause either extreme droughts or floods and that the extreme events have increased. These are some of the risks of global climate change because of the increase of gas concentration in the atmosphere – such as carbon dioxides, nitrogen oxides and methane - which increase the greenhouse effect. Facing the consequences that could emerge because of the global temperature grown, there is a genuine necessity in different sectors of reduction the greenhouse gases and reduced the adverse impacts of climate change. To solve that, many worldwide conventions have been realized (Rio de Janeiro, Kyoto, Montreal) where different countries have established political compromises to stabilize their emissions of greenhouse gases. The mitigation and adaptation policies merge as a response to the effects that the global climate change could have, on the humans as well as the environment. That is the reason to provide the analysis of the areas and geographic zones of the country that present major vulnerability to the climate change. The development of an inventory of emissions that identifies and quantifies the principal sources of greenhouse gases of a country, and also of a region is basic to any study about climate change, also to develop specific political programs that allow to preserve and even improve a quality of the atmospheric environment, and maybe to incorporate to international mechanisms such as the emissions market. To estimate emissions in a systematic and consistent way on a regional, national and international level is a requirement to evaluate the feasibility and the cost-benefit of instrumented possible mitigation strategies and to adopt politics and technologies to reduce emissions. Mexico has two national inventories of emissions, 1990 and 1995, now it is on the press the year 2000, both published by the National Institute of Ecology of the SEMARNAT. There is not an emissions inventory of Veracruz, the few measurements campaigns that have been done in urban centers, it has not been possible to have access data, neither it has been designed a public politic that suggests the necessity of counting on information on the matter. In spite of it, because of the geographic conditions of Veracruz, the potential impact will transform Veracruz in a short period of time, that’s why the Veracruz University must leadership studies around it, where the social distribution of the obtained results will make possible the creation of politics, strategies directed to a sustainable development, economically viable, socially fair and environmentally respectful.
GC23A-03
Polar Methane Sulphonic Acid Trend Associated With Beryllium-10 and Solar Irradiance
The solar activity has been propose as one of the main factors of the climatic variability. Also another type of processes, the biological ones, have been proposed as important factor in the climatic variation through the modification of the cloud albedo. In the present work we used the wavelet analysis to investigate the relation between the polar concentrations of Methane Sulphonic Acid (MSA), that is a product of marine seaweed and total solar irradiance (TSI) and Beryllium 10, an isotope that forms in the atmosphere and is a proxy of the cosmic rays. We found that the MSA presents in the 11 years sunspot cycle a negative correlation with the TSI and a positive correlation with Beryllium-10. Moreover, the Beryllium-10 presents a positive correlation with the MSA at 22 years.
GC23A-04
The Nonlinear Relationship Between the Arctic Oscillation and Stratospheric Ozone
An analysis of total ozone concentration as a function of the Arctic Oscillation Index (AO) was performed at all available stations. In particular, we looked for relationships between the two that were nonlinear in nature by performing a best fit of the total ozone concentrations to a quadratic function of the AO index. During the winter months (DJFM), a general negative correlation between the two variables was observed at stations between the latitudes of 40N and 70N. This is due to the influence ozone concentration has on stratospheric temperature and in turn on the strength of the AO. A strong AO, or more specifically, a strong polar vortex can serve to dynamically isolate air masses with low ozone depleted by early spring halogen chemistry or by summertime NOx chemistry. This represents a feedback mechanism by which ozone concentration and the AO are linked in both directions which should manifest itself as a nonlinear relationship between the two variables. We find such a significant quadratic relationship only in May at stations between 50N and 70N, primarily in Northern Europe and Russia.
GC23A-05
Analysis of the Extraterrestrial Influences on the Antarctic Ozone Hole Size.
In this work we look for evidences of relationships between the Antarctic Ozone Hole Size (OHS) and the Solar Cycle (SC) periodicities, as well as with the Cosmic Rays (CR) fluxes. With this goal in mind we also analyze the Antarctic temperature anomalies, linked with the OHS, and their response to the SC and CR variations. By means of wavelet transformation based on the Morlet wavelet, it is found that (OHS) present a prominent periodicity frequency at ~ 3.5 yrs. Then, applying the Wavelet Coherence analysis to two time-series, it is found: (1) there is a common signal along time (September-november) of ~ 3.5 yrs. between (OHS) and Cosmic Ray (CR): from 1988 to 1990 with a coherence coefficient of 0.8 and from 1998 to 2002 with a coherence coefficient of 0.9. In both periods the relationship is of non-linear nature. (2) the coherence between the time series of (OHS) and Antarctic temperature (AT) is of linear nature (anticorrelation) with a coherence factor > 0.85 in the periods 1985-1990 and 1998-2002. (3) the coherence between the time series of (RC) and (AT) at polar altitude of 10-30 Km is of non-linear nature between 1986-1990 and of linear nature in the period 1991-1996 with coherence within in the interval [0.65-0.7] in both cases. Between 1997-2002 there is a non-linear relation with coherence in the interval [0.7-0.9]. (4) the coherence between (SC) and (AT) is of non-linear nature is in the range [0.7-0.85] in the period 1987-1992. Preliminary inferences seems to indicate that there is a relationship between the the Ozone Hole Size and Cosmic Rays.
GC23A-06
Holocene Record Of The Cuitzeo Lake, Michoacan, Central Mexico
A 205 cm-long core spanning the last ca.10,000 years was taken in the western basin of Lake Cuitzeo, located in the tectonic depressions of central Mexico. Age control for the core is provided by four AMS dates on organic sediment. The uppermost 30 cm of the core appears to be highly bioturbated according to Pb210 chronologies. A time plot of mass-accumulation rates of sediment (g/cm2/kyr) shows high rates from 10,000 to 6000 yrs BP, strikingly reduced mid-Holocene rates, and increasing rates post 1000 yrs (which could be due to introduction of European ranching and agriculture). Organic and inorganic carbon (TOC. TIC), diatoms, iron and titanium concentrations were analyzed and used to infer variations in the hydrological cycle and climatic conditions. The lower part of the core (ca.8000 C14 yr B.P.) is characterized by high percents of CaCO3 (more than 35 percent) which rapidly declines to values less than 20 percent after ca. 6000 C14 yr B.P., likely reflecting reduced summer precipitation due to decline summer insolation. Coincident with this decline in percents CaCO3 there is a decline greater that two-fold sediment accumulation rates and an increase in percents TOC. Two peaks TOC are recorded at 909 and 6744 C14 yr B.P. suggesting increased precipitation. The TOC peak at 909 C14 yr B.P. may be associated with increased precipitation during the Medieval Warm Period. The middle Holocene TOC peak at 6744 C14 yr B.P. coincides with a period of increased precipitation in the Cariaco Basin of Venezuela. These changes in precipitation are similar to those recorded in lake records from Guatemala and the marine record of the Cariaco Basin and can be explained by shifts in the mean latitude of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The upper 100 cm of the core was studied at 1 cm intervals for metals (Al, Fe, Ti, Pb, etc.) using ICPMS geochemistry. These metals show strong cycles throughout the studied interval which may reflect wet-dry cycles. A two fold reduction in percent Ti between ca. 56 and 31 cm in the core may reflect increased aridity between ca. 2,400 and 800 C14 yr B.P. A greater than three-fold increase in Ti mass accumulation rates in the uppermost part of the core likely is due to increase erosion caused by agriculture during the past ca. 400 years. Diatom, magnetic susceptibility and pollen analyses that are in progress on the Lake Cutizeo core will refine the paleoenvironmental history of this central Mexican lake and will be compared with other continental and marine Holocene records.
GC23A-07
Three-Dimensional Mapping and Visualization of Airborne Polar Radar Data
Airborne radar has become a prevailing method for imaging through ice masses and determining ice thickness in polar regions. Recent and ongoing technological advances in acquisition and processing of radar data are offering improved imaging capabilities while increasing vastly the quantity of data available. However, tools for quantitative interpretation and visualization of polar airborne radar data have not improved at the same rate. A need is developing for efficient, computer-based, interactive interpretation and visualization methods of radar data as well as integration of complementary data sources into a singular interpretation framework. We adapted a commercially available seismic interpretation software to interpret airborne ice-penetrating radar data. Georeferenced, digital maps of internal ice layers and the ice bed were generated, and intersecting grids of radar data profiles were visualized in three dimensions. The data were depth converted and isopachs over a range of depth intervals were derived. Maps of ice-bed topography and ice thickness were compiled over Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica. Three-dimensional imaging illustrates the spatial variability of features of interest, such as ice bed roughness and potential melt at the base of the ice. Visualization of the radar data in this interactive, workstation-based approach can help glaciologists to more efficiently analyze large volumes of radar data and therefore lead to better understanding of ice sheet properties and processes.
GC23A-08
Pilot Studies of Geologic and Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration in the Big Sky Region, USA, and Opportunities for Commercial Scale Deployment of New Technologies
Within the Big Sky region, including Montana, Idaho, South Dakota, Wyoming and the Pacific Northwest, industry
is developing new coal-fired power plants using the abundant coal and other fossil-based resources. Of crucial
importance to future development programs are robust carbon mitigation plans that include a technical and
economic assessment of regional carbon sequestration opportunities. The objective of the Big Sky Carbon
Sequestration Partnership (BSCSP) is to promote the development of a regional framework and infrastructure
required to validate and deploy carbon sequestration technologies. Initial work compiled sources and potential
sinks for carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Big Sky Region and developed the online Carbon Atlas. Current efforts
couple geologic and terrestrial field validation tests with market assessments, economic analysis and regulatory
and public outreach. The primary geological efforts are in the demonstration of carbon storage in mafic/basalt
formations, a geology not yet well characterized but with significant long-term storage potential in the region and
other parts of the world; and in the Madison Formation, a large carbonate aquifer in Wyoming and Montana.
Terrestrial sequestration relies on management practices and technologies to remove atmospheric CO2 to
storage in trees, plants, and soil. This indirect sequestration method can be implemented today and is on the
front-line of voluntary, market-based approaches to reduce CO2 emissions.
Details of pilot projects are presented including: new technologies, challenges and successes of projects and
potential for commercial-scale deployment.
http:www.bigskyco2.org
GC23A-09
Diurnal and Seasonal Cycles of CO2 Fluxes in the low Deciduous Forest in the South of Sonora, Mexico
The Deciduous Seasonal Forest or Low Deciduous Forest (LDF) is one of the most diverse and most contrasting ecosystems in Mexico. It can be found from the south of the northern state of Sonora to the border of Mexico with Guatemala. This ecosystem is very important to the region since it represents a big area of vegetal cover close to the biggest cities of South Sonora (hence, endangered), and can be considered as a sink of carbon dioxide. In the present study, the CO2 fluxes over the LDF were analyzed in the period from June 2004 to December 2006. The CO2, latent and sensible heat, and momentum fluxes were measured using the Eddy covariance method. The Eddy covariance system consists of a 3-D sonic anemometer (CSAT3, Campbell Scientific), a gas analyzer (LI-7500, LI-COR), and diverse meteorological equipment controlled by a datalogger (CR5000, Campbell Scientific). The measures were made at 10Hz, collecting, storing and averaging the measurements every 30 minutes. The same type of cover is present in, at least, 3 km around the tower. The results show a large range in the diurnal variation of the CO2 fluxes, with values from -1.5 (day) to 0.8 (night) mg CO2 m- 2s-1 (negative values indicate uptake) in the summer, and from -0.5 to 0.15 mg CO2 m-2s- 1 during the winter. This ecosystems presents a clear growing season corresponding to the rain season in the summer, nevertheless, even in the dry season, the LDF can be considered as a sink of carbon dioxide during some hours around the midday.
GC23A-10
Variability and Expansion of the Tropical Warm Pool and its effects on Zonal and Meridional Circulation
The tropical warm pool plays a determining role in the global climate since it acts as a sorce of dynamic and thermodynamic forcing for the atmospheric general circulation, providing a source of mositure as well as atmospheric instability resulting in the most convective region in the world. The tropical warm pool is characterized by large-scale variations of SST on time scales that range from intraseasonal to interannual and interdecadal, considerably altering the heat flux exchange with the atmosphere. In addition to existence of the large variability of the tropical warm pool SST, we present evidence of an upward trend in the tropical warm pool area (area of SST > 28°C) , which is evident in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans. The use of different SST reconstructions, ICOADS data as well as satellite-based SST datasets, confirms the existence of an expanding Tropical Warm Pool. Analysis of several diferent models that are part of the CMIP3 under different emission scnearios, including preindustrial, twentieth century, and one percent increase of CO2 emmissions until doubling, as well as output of the Parallel Climate Model under different forcing scenarios, confirm the results observed in the datasets and suggest that greeenhouse warming plays a determining role in the expansion of the tropical warm pool. Changes in the zonal and meridional circulation associated with the variability and expansion of the warm pool are studied for the last sixty years using NCEP?NCAR and ERA40 reanalsysis. The potential future changes in the atmospheric circulation associated with an expanding tropical warm pool are evaluated using the different CMIP3 scenarios. Preliminary results suggest the existence of important changes in the zonal and meridional circulation in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian ocean basins in association with the expansion of the tropical warm pool.
GC23A-11
Effective Temperature Like an Indicative of Global Warming at Rio Grande do Sul
The concept of effective temperature has been proven valuable in studies of climate changes and global
warming. Pielke (2004) has shown that monitoring the moist static energy, which is a function of temperature and
moisture content in the air, is a more proper metric to assess surface global warming. The effective temperature
is proportional to the moist static energy by the specific heat content of the air at constant pressure. Since global
warming is not homogeneous over the planet, we considered a limited area, the southernmost state of Brazil, Rio
Grande do Sul. This region was selected due to the importance of cattle raising, agriculture, and fishery, as main
economical activities. All those activities depend strongly on climate variations.
We applied the concept of effective temperature to evaluate both the local warming and the contribution of
moisture to it. The air temperature and specific humidity data was provided by the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, for
the region from 27°S to 34°S, and from 49°W to 58°W, from 1948 to 2005. In an early
work, we demonstrated that actual measurements in three places within the region are not similar to the
Reanalysis data, although their anomalies are. Evaluation of the rate of increase of temperature, humidity, and
effective temperature anomalies was performed, in each grid point, using linear regression. Moreover, Hovmoller
diagrams were constructed for each latitude. Those analyses led to the conclusion that a real increase exists in
all of the variables.
The average effective temperature rate of increase was 0.5 °C per decade, although it is smaller inland and
at the north coast, while the temperature rate of increase is larger in the south, and the humidity one, in the center
and south. The largest effective temperature amplitude for the annual averages was in the north, but large values
also occurred near to the ocean. The temperature presented larger amplitudes mostly in the coast, while the
humidity varied more in the north region. Contributions to the effective temperature due to the humidity term varied
from 54 to 80%, except for a point inland, in the south. Therefore, most of the warming in the southernmost
region of Brazil, in the period from 1948 to 2005, was due to an increase of specific humidity. It has been
suggested that this raise was due to the high number of El Nino occurrences during the 1990's. These
phenomena produce a change in the surface circulation which favors the incursion of moist warm air from the
northwestern region of South America to the southern Brazil.
http:www.meteorologia.furg.br
GC23A-12
Giovanni for Global Climate Studies: Data Intercomparison and Cross-Validation
Giovanni, a web-based application developed by NASA Goddard provides a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze and access vast amounts of Earth science satellite remote sensing data and model simulations without having to download the data and programs to read. One of the instances in Giovanni is cloud, aerosol and other atmospheric data products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Terra (EOS AM) and Aqua (EOS PM) satellites. Recently, the next generation of MODIS data products, tagged Collection 005 and remarked by significant improvements, have been released to replace the earlier Collection 004 data products. This paper will present a variety of intercomparison results between the two satellite and the two versions of aerosol and cloud data products. The intercomparison studies will help to better evaluate and validate the variability of aerosol, cloud and other related atmospheric physics in the multiple years satellite remote sensing data, and satellite, sensor and retrieval algorithm related issues. MODIS aerosol and cloud products will be also compared to the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulations, the Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) aerosol products and other A-Train active aerosol and cloud measurements for future data fusion among multiple satellites and sensors to maximize the satellite remote sensing data usability and generate the best data products for science applications.