GP41D-01
Determination of position of forthcoming strong EQs by ULF magnetic location
A local source of ULF magnetic disturbances (F=0.001-1 Hz) originates in a lithosphere during a period of preparation for a strong EQ. The lithosphere source is located in a region of a forthcoming EQ hypocenter. Using data of magnetic stations situated at a big distance from the forthcoming EQ epicenter we can locate this epicenter. Three magnetic stations situated at tops of a triangle at the Earth's surface at distances 4-6 km one from the other are a magnetic gradientometer. Two gradientometers situated at distance 100-150 km allow determining (along the Earth's surface) gradient and phase velocity vectors of ULF magnetic disturbances of ionosphere and lithosphere origination. As a rule, ionosphere sources are situated in auroral zone and lithosphere sources are situated in seismic active zones. The gradient vectors are directed to a local source of the ULF variations and the phase velocity vectors are directed in the opposite direction. Recent our works had achieved an anomaly behavior of amplitudes, gradients and phase velocity values appearing 1-2 months before strong EQs (M > 5). These effects were firstly recorded at Japan by the magnetic gradientometer situated at Izu and Boso peninsulas (Japan). The strongest seismic shock with magnitude M=6.4 had taken place 01.07.2000 under a sea bottom at a distance ~ 75 km from the remote magnetic stations located at Izu and ~ 140 km from the magnetic stations located at Boso. Using the phase-gradient method the gradient and phase velocity vectors of ULF magnetic disturbances were constructed and they allowed finding a position of the epicenter of the forthcoming EQ.
GP41D-02
Investigation of geomagnetic disturbances (F=1-5 Hz) before strong EQs in Kamchatka region
Regular observations of ULF electromagnetic disturbances at st. Karymshino in seismic active zone of Kamchatka peninsula were carried out by induction three-component high-sensitive magnetometer during 2001- 2003 years. Five seismic active periods with strong earthquakes (M>5) were displayed during this period. These EQs occurred at the Pacific at 20-60 km depth at 100-140 km distances to the East from the st. Karymshino. Analysis of normalized dynamic power spectra of data of high-sensitive (0.2 pT/sqrt(Hz)) three- component induction magnetometer achieved a significant disorder of daily variation and increasing of the magnetic disturbance intensities (from 0.2 to ~ 1 pT) in the whole investigated frequency range (1 - 5 Hz). The anomaly intensity increasing was observed during the 12-18 hours before main seismic shocks. Maximum of the increasing occurred during 4-6 hours before the EQs. A sharp decreasing of the magnetic disturbance intensities was observed 2-4 hours before the EQs. We suppose that physical processes in a hearth of forthcoming EQ lead to an irreversible avalanche-like formation of cracks and stimulation of the ULF electromagnetic disturbances.
GP41D-03
Possible forerunners of earthquakes in optical range
The monitoring of the electrostatic field on the eve of the strong earthquakes detect its ultra-low-frequency perturbations with a period of a few hours (10-4Hz) and a magnitude of the order of 10 V/cm. Usually this field is on the level of one V/cm. The anomalous electric field as a forerunner of the coming earthquake considerably increases a concentration of the metal ions (sodium) in the E-domain at altitudes ~120 km and the electron concentration, as well. In particular, the latter may enlarge by one order comparing with the initial electron concentration in this domain. The typical dimensions of this layer are ~ 100 km in a length and ~ 10 km in a thickness. The perturbations of this electric field form a layer with higher than usual concentration of sodium ions and atoms in the E- ionosphere and the field will heats-up electrons in this layer. Simple evaluations show the electron temperature in this layer in the presence of the seismogenic electric field is approximately about 1000-1300K at altitudes 100-120 km provided that the electric field is ~ 10-3 V/cm. It is important the cross-section of excitation of the nitrogen low vibration levels by electrons at this energy is anomalous and close to 5x10-15cm2. It happens to be that the eighth vibration level of a nitrogen molecule practically coincides with the first excited state of a sodium atom with energy ENa=2.1eV. Thus, the resonant transfer of the vibration energy of excited nitrogen with excitation of a sodium atom takes place practically in every collision. Our evaluation of the sodium doublet intensity due to the above-discussed mechanism from the ionosphere layer, mentioned above, gives 5x10-3erg/cm2s. A comparison of this quantity with the conventional intensity of the sodium doublet from this layer 7x10-4erg/cm2s shows that the suggested mechanism provides the intensity almost by one order larger than the conventional intensity of the sodium doublet. The considerable increasing in the intensity of the sodium doublet in the spectrum of the night ionosphere can be registered by monitoring the night sky over the seismic dangerous regions.
GP41D-04
Geomagnetic monitoring of the volcano Popocatepetl, Mexico in the ULF (Ultra Low Frequency) range, 2003-2006
Results of ULF (Ultra Low Frequency) geomagnetic anomalies observed at Tlamacas station (Long. 261.37, Lat. 19.07), located in the vicinity (4 km) near volcano Popocatepetl (active volcano, Long. 261.37, Lat. 19.02), during the period 2003-2006 and their analysis are presented. The geomagnetic data were collected by a 3-axial fluxgate magnetometer designed at UCLA (University of California, Los Angeles, 1 Hz sampling rate frequency, GPS). Our analysis reveals some anomalies which are suspected to be generated by local volcanic origin: the EM background in the volcano is significantly noisier than in other reference stations; strong (up to 100 gamma), wide band and noise-like geomagnetic activity is detected in the H-component; some geomagnetic pulsations (without preferred polarization) are observed only at Tlamacas station. The mentioned monitoring can serve as another perspective tool to study volcanic geodynamical processes besides the traditional ones.
GP41D-05
Anomalous geomagnetic variations associated with Parkfield (Ms=6.0, 28-SEP-2004, California, USA) earthquake
Analysis of geomagnetic and telluric data, measured at the station PRK (Parkfield, ULF flux-gate 3-axial magnetometer) 1 week before (including) the day of the major EQ (EarthQuake, Ms=6.0, 28-SEP-2004, 17:15:24) near Parkfield, California, USA, are presented. Spectral analysis reveal the ULF geomagnetic disturbances observed the day before the event, Sep 27, at 15:00- 20:00 by UT, and at the day of the EQ, Sep 28, at 11:00-19:00. Filtering in the corresponding frequency band f = 0.25-0.5 Hz gives the following estimations of the amplitudes of the signals: up to 20 pT for the magnetic channels and 1.5 mkV/km for the telluric ones. Observed phenomena occurs under quiet geomagnetic conditions (|Dst|<20 nT); revision of the referent stations data situated far away from the EQ epicenter (330 km) does not reveal any similar effect. Moreover, the Quake Finder research group (http:www.quakefinder.com) received very similar results (ELF range instrument, placed about 50 km from the EQ epicenter) for the day of the EQ. Mentioned above suggests the localized character of the source, possibly of the ionosphere or tectonic origin rather than of magnetosphere. Comparative analysis of the mentioned 2 stations show that we observed the lower-frequency part of the ULF- ELF burst, localized in the frequency range 0.25-1 Hz, generated 9 hours before the earthquake. Acknowledgements. The authors are grateful to Malcolm Johnston for providing us with the geomagnetic data.
GP41D-06
Evaluation of earthquake alarms based on detecting EM signals during the period of major earthquakes in Mexico from 2001-2006
We present results from our collection and evaluating of early warning signals from the lithosphere, atmosphere and ionosphere preceding the major earthquake events in Mexico. This study examines possible connections between anomalous changes of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters observed around the time of several strong earthquakes in Mexico (M7.8 Colima of January 21, 2003, M5.8 Oaxaca of July 18, 2004 and others). Our approach requires integral measurements of several physical and environmental parameters (electric and electromagnetic fields, air conductivity, ionospheric parameters, temperature and humidity of the boundary layer, seismicity) that have been found to be associated with impending earthquakes. Our ionospheric and atmospheric observational methodology is based of joint analysis of: (1) Delta Total Electron Contents (TEC) collected from ground based GPS; (2) satellite long-wavelength radiation data form NOAA; (3) surface latent heat flux (SLHF); (4) DEMETER satellite VLF electrical field and; (5) thermal infrared (TIR) data from (NASA EOS/MODIS) together with ground air temperature and humidity measurements. This analysis revealed several types of atmosphere /ionosphere anomalies one week prior to the earthquakes that validated the alarm signals. Our latest experience from several post-earthquake independent analyses recognized the problem of proper evaluation of such alarm techniques for upcoming major (M>5.5, depth<50km) earthquakes in a comprehensive and systematic fashion based of the latest major seismicity from. We found evidence of systematic appearance atmosphere-ionosphere anomalies preceding most of the major events. Night time TIR signals, approximately 1-2 week before the earthquakes corresponded with an increase of SLHF and air temperature, followed by significant variations in the ionospheric TEC measurements above the epicenters. These findings are consistent with the theoretical model of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere coupling between the crust and the atmosphere/ionosphere. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the statistical methodology used for reviewing the alarms and highlight the practical usefulness of these techniques.
GP41D-07
Seismo-Electromagnetic Emissions and VHF Pulsed Radio Signal Observations (P-H pulses) over one Solar Orbit - More Questions than Answers
Electromagnetic radiation has been observed and measured during the deformation/fracture of 'rock' over various scales by many authors. One form of emission, termed P-H pulses (pulsed VHF radio signals) was first observed prior to a M = 5.9, earthquake that occurred 10:28, 28 Dec. 1989 (LT) at Newcastle, NSW, Australia. Information of the monitoring equipment used and some interpretations of P-H pulses have been given by Pulinets and Hollis-Watts, 2003 and in Pulinets and Boyarchuk, 2006. At this stage we note: a. Cycles in P-H pulses that appear associated with astronomical geometry. b. No identified effects, as of yet, from severe electrical storms, pressure and precipitation and coronal ejections. c. Consistent measurement (i.e. over 100,000 frames) of more positive than negative spikes indicating a flux, which is not a recognised form of electromagnetic interference. d. A short duration anomaly that may precede earthquakes and a relatively long duration anomaly that appears to be co-volcanic (with distinctly different FFTs).
GP41D-08
Atmospheric electric field effects of cosmic rays detected in Mexico City.
We studied the posible effects of atmospheric electric fields, generated in thunderstorms, on the cosmic ray intensity detected at Earth's surface by investigating the variation of the counting rates of the cosmic-ray nucleonic component, obtained from the neutron monitor installed in Mexico City, for thunderstorms during 1996 and 1997. These were years of minimum solar activity. We compare our experimental results with the general theory of cosmic ray meteorological effects by Dorman (1995). The observed intensity variation is about 0.2%. According to Dorman (1995), the effect should be between 0.27% and 0.81% on the counting rate of the neutron monitor when the atmospheric electric field intensities are around 100 to 300 V/cm. Our results show that either the electric field in Mexico City had less intensity than assumed by Dorman (1995), or the electric field is not uniform in time and height during the development of the thunderstorm.
GP41D-09
Study of ionospheric perturbations observed by the satellite DEMETER during seismic activity
DEMETER is an ionospheric micro-satellite launched on a polar orbit at an altitude of 710 km. Its main scientific objective is to study the ionospheric perturbations in relation with seismic activity, and then, its scientific payload allows to measure electromagnetic waves and plasma parameters all around the Earth except in the auroral zones. Two specific parameters are taken into account in this paper: the electron density and the electrostatic turbulence. As the ionosphere is highly variable and mainly under the control of the sun, only a statistical analysis of the data is able to show if there is an effect of the seismic activity in the ionosphere. A statistical study has been set about the variation of these parameters during the seismic activity. As the data base is now increasing it is possible to check the results when more and more events are added. The statistic is done as functions of the geographic position, the local time, and the magnetic activity. Geographical maps with average data are obtained to be used as background levels, and the superposed epoch method is applied to merge the data recorded during seismic activity. Comparison is done when we remove the aftershocks from the statistics.
GP41D-10 INVITED
Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling model: Fundamentals and recent developments
Recent theoretical and experimental studies within the frame of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling
model (LAIC) permitted to generalize a common conception of different kinds of specific variations of
geochemical, atmospheric, electromagnetic and ionospheric parameters observed before strong earthquakes.
The long history of this conception (starting in 1990) and the several existing updates are mostly connected with
its interdisciplinary character. LAIC is based on two simple but fundamental facts: 1) specific variations (usually
increase) of radon emanation have place for every earthquake; 2) increased emanation of radon from the Earth's
crust in the vicinity of active tectonic faults before an earthquake take place within the earthquake preparation area
estimated by Dobrovolsky. Air ionization by radon takes place over the large territories and has a strong effect on
the following processes in the atmospheric boundary layer: (1)formation of the large ion clusters due to water
molecules attachment to ions; (2) latent heat release; (3) changing of boundary layer electric conductivity; (3)
upward convective flux, generation of anomalous electric field; (4) air temperature increase and drop of relative
humidity and (5) specific shape clouds formation. Variations of atmospheric electricity stimulated by ionization
process induce variations in the ionosphere trough the global electric circuit.
The simultaneous co-existence of several processes manifesting this coupling explains the variety of observed
phenomena and enhances the reliability of detecting the future seismogenic signals. Interactive model
improvement through data fusion using the data of satellite and ground based monitoring for the major recent
earthquakes revealed new aspects of energy conversion from chemical reactions up to thermodynamics and
electrodynamics.
http:tonatiuh.igeofcu.unam.mx/~pulse