U33B-01 INVITED
Anticipated Changes in Climate Over North America in the 21st Century
Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, for the first time, makes statements regarding the likelihood of future regional climate changes, in its fourth assessment. Prior to this report, statements were limited to latitude belts or generic statements such as 'mid-continental drying'. I will present these more detailed results for North America, including those for Canada, the United States, and Mexico. The relative strength of the statements made depends on expert judgments of the authors of the chapter on Regional Projections, and considered the following factors: regional results of global climate models, physical understanding of processes governing regional responses, recent historical climate change, and more detailed regional results based on some finer-scale modeling. I primarily discuss the changes in temperature and precipitation and changes in extreme events. It is very likely that all land areas of North America will warm in the 21st century. The warming is likely to be largest in northern regions and in summer in the south-west. Annual mean precipitation is very likely to increase in Canada, and the north-east USA, and is likely to decrease in the south-west. Finally, the value of these types of qualitative statements about regional climate change to stakeholders will be discussed.
U33B-02
Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Latin American Region
Over the past three decades LA was subjected to several climate-related impacts due to increased El Niño occurrences. Two extremely intense episodes of El Niño and other increased climate extremes happened during this period contributing greatly to augment the vulnerability of human systems to natural disasters. In addition to weather and climate, the main drivers of the increased vulnerability are demographic pressure, unregulated urban growth, poverty and rural migration, low investment in infrastructure and services, and problems in inter-sector coordination. As well, increases in temperature and increases/decreases in precipitation observed during the last part of 20th century have yet led to intensification of glaciers melting, increases in floods/droughts and forest fires frequency, increases in morbidity and mortality, increases in plant diseases incidence; lost of biodiversity, reduction in dairy cattle production, and problems with hydropower generation, highly affecting LA human system. For the end of the 21st century, the projected mean warming for LA ranges from 1 to 7.5ºC and the frequency of weather and climate extremes could increase. Additionally, deforestation is projected to continue leading to a reduction of 25 percent in Amazonia forest in 2020 and 40 percent in 2050. Soybeans planted area in South America could increase by 55 percent by 2020 enhancing aridity/desertification in many of the already water- stressed regions. By 2050 LA population is likely to be 50 percent larger than in 2000, and migration from the country sides to the cities will continue. In the near future, these predicted changes are very likely to severely affect a number of ecosystems and sectors by: a) Decreasing plant and animal's species diversity, and changing ecosystems composition and biomes distribution; b) Disappearing most tropical glaciers; c) Reducing water availability and hydropower generation; d) Increasing desertification and aridity; e) Severely affecting people, resources and economic activities in coastal areas; f) Increasing crop's pests and diseases; and g) Changing some human diseases distribution and provoking the emergence of new ones. The impact of climate change in Latin America's productive sectors is estimated to be of a 1.3 percent reduction of the region's GDP for a change of 2ºC in global temperature (without consider non market sectors and extremes events). Moreover, if the LA countries continue to follow the business as usual scenario, the wealth of natural resources that have supported economic and socio-cultural development in the region will be further degraded, reducing the regional potential for growth. Urgent measures must be taken to help bring environmental and social considerations from the margins to the decision-making and development strategies. This presentation is part of the revision done for the Latin American (LA) chapter under the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report.
U33B-03
Findings and lessons from IPCC-WG@ Chapter on Industry, Settlement, and Society
The main goal of the presentation is to take stock and look forward by a) summarizing the main findings of IPCC- WG2 Chapter on Industry, Settlement, and Society; b) sharing some thoughts on climate change's potential to affect many aspects of human development; and c) discussing the research uncertainties and research priorities.
U33B-04
Can we reduce vulnerability and enhance adaptation to climate change and climate variability in urban areas? Lessons from Latin America
IPCC 4th Assessment Report has brought renewed attention to climate change and the challenges it creates for societies. The call for action has focused on the reduction of CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases but has not provided equal attention to identifying the impacts of climate change on societies. This is a critical issue for poor countries where the most dramatic negative consequences of those impacts will occur. The incorrect perception that the consequences will only occur in the medium- to long -term often contributes to the notion that those impacts do not require as much attention as the most immediate urban and environmental problems. Yet, the decisions that urban areas take today with regards to urban growth can dramatically increase their vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and neglect opportunities to better adapt to its negative impacts. This talk presents a series of reflections about the challenges to reduce vulnerability to climate change in urban areas and open opportunities to better adapt to its negative impacts.
U33B-05
Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Mexico. Climatic Actions Plans
Climatic extreme events have caused in Mexico in the last 20 years ten thousand deaths and around 500 million USD per year in damages. Governmental agencies at different levels have launched several initiatives to face the changing climate and to increase the coping social capacities. In this presentation three initiatives will be discuss. A "National Strategy for Climatic Action" was submitted to public consultation in August 2006. Two authors of this presentations coordinated the discussion related to vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, were NGOs, experts and general public proposed several recommendations. A synthesis of those recommendations will be presented making emphasis on the need to increase the stakeholder's participation, capacity building and climate interdisciplinary research. For vulnerability and adaptation studies performed for the Third National Communication to the UNFCCC, we developed a survey that was answered by the "Advice Councils for Sustainable Development", of the Minister of Environment (SEMARNAT), with the purpose to analyze the perceptions and proposals of different sectors related to climate change. The main results of that survey show the interest and willingness of the different social sectors to reduce vulnerability and increase the adaptive capacity to climate variability and change. Finally, several ongoing regional initiatives to generated action plans and strategies will be presented: The State Action Plan in Veracruz and municipal / local efforts in the states of Tlaxcala and Veracruz.
U33B-06
The Women's Role in the Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change: Its Contribution to the Risk Management
Recently, there is evidence of an increase in the amount of severity in extreme events associated with the climate variability or climate change; which demonstrates that climate in this planet is changing. There is an observation of increasing damages, and of social economical cost associated with these phenomena's, mostly do to more people are living in hazard vulnerable conditions. The victims of natural disasters have increase from 147 to 211 million between 1991 and 2000. In same way more than 665.000 people have died in 2557 natural disasters, which 90% are associated with water and climate. (UNESCO & WWAP, 2003). The actual tendency and the introduction of new factors of risk, suggest lost increase in the future, obligating actions to manage and reduce risk of disaster. Bind work, health, poverty, education, water, climate, and disasters is not an error, is an obligation. Vulnerability of society to natural hazards and to poverty are bond, to reduce the risk of disasters is frequently united with the reduction of poverty and in the other way too (Sen, 2000). In this context, extreme events impact societies in all the world, affecting differently men and women, do to the different roles they play in the society, the different access in the control of resources, the few participation that women have in taking decisions with preparedness, mitigation, rehabilitation of disasters, impacting more women in developing countries. Although, women understand better the causes and local consequences in changes of climate conditions. They have a pile of knowledge and abilities for guiding adaptation, playing a very important role in vulnerable communities. This work shows how these topics connect with the millennium development goals; particularly how it affects its accomplishment. It also describes the impact of climate variability and climate change in developing countries. Analyzing adaptation responses that are emerging; especially from women initiation.
U33B-07
Vulnerability Assessment of Population to Water Related Hazards in Venezuela
In order to quantify the vulnerability of the population to water related hazards, specifically floods and landslides, it is important to count on reliable data about the impacts of events, population exposure and geophysical factors contributing to the magnitude of damage. In this work we present the steps followed to build a vulnerability map of Venezuela with the purpose of identifying the most vulnerable districts across the country. This district based map is important for decision makers and local governments to set priorities in vulnerability reduction programs. Data on the number of events and the number of people affected death or injured was collected from international data sets and from local newspapers for the period 1960-2000. Different data sources at different spatial scales were used to get information about population density, topography, river network, rainfall anomalies and other geophysical variables. A hierarchical log linear regression model was used to represent the percentage of people affected at each district relative to the national figure, also called "Relative Risk". This was considered as a measurement of vulnerability. The main geophysical factors contributing to significantly explain the spatial distribution of the Relative Risk were selected by using a model selection strategy. We also discuss the issue of using multiple scale data sources and the importance of the scale in the final results.
U33B-08
Resilience to Drought Impacts of Climate Change in Mexico
Countries and states within countries have a different vulnerability and resilience to the effects of climate change. Although many aspects determine relative vulnerability and resilience, we look at socioeconomic and environmental information to assess the relative ranking of Mexican states to climate change, both establishing baselines in the year 2000 and then looking at projections once particular effects such as drought intensify throughout the country. We employ the modeling analysis framework of the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator Model (VRIM) that shows considerable variation among states in comparative resilience to climate change and in the sources of that resilience. The VRIM uses 18 proxy indicators, grouped into 8 sectors, to assess on a quantitative basis the comparative potential vulnerability and resilience of countries to climate change. The model integrates detailed socioeconomic and environmental information such as land use, crop production, water availability, per capita GDP, inequality, and health status. A multiple-scale analysis was performed. Mexico as a country ranks in the second-highest quartile of the 160 countries ranked; for comparison purposes, Brazil, the Czech Republic, and Turkey are also in this quartile. Mexico and Mexican states were compared using national and state data; the comparisons show that resilience to climate change does not depend on location as much as on the combination of socio-economic and environmental aspects of a state. When drought was added as a stressor affecting most proxy variables, the overall and projected resilience changed only slightly; to gain insight into the impacts of drought, case studies are needed to complement model results.