U34B-01
Variabilidad de la Estación de Crecimiento en la Región Sur de Tamaulipas en condiciones climaticas actuales y futuras.
El impacto de la variabilidad y cambio climáticos, afectan el potencial agrícola de la Región Sur de Tamaulipas. Además de los cambios estacionales, bajos rendimientos agrícolas, el manejo de los cultivos y las políticas locales de producción, existe la incertidumbre del mercado regional para los pequeños y grandes productores. La diversificación agrícola ha sido una alternativa para enfrentar las condiciones imperantes en esta región. Pero ésta ha provocado la fragmentación territorial, por lo que sólo algunos productores logran competir en un mercado nacional. Existe una preocupación generalizada por buscar soluciones que permitan que la población que es afectada por la inseguridad de la producción agrícola y económica, pueda adaptarse a las variaciones climáticas que afectan el proceso productivo. La seguridad alimentaría queda sujeta a la fluctuación de las importaciones para los sectores básicos y a las estrategias mercantiles de empresas trasnacionales. La percepción local sugiere un número creciente de eventos climatológicos extremos, constantes y severos en los últimos 20 años, con el aumento creciente de pérdidas económicas. El análisis se centra en la disponibilidad de agua, agregándose un aspecto de capital importancia como es la variabilidad interanual de la lluvia, que condiciona muy fuertemente el riesgo agrícola en el trópico seco, siendo ésta la que determina el momento de inicio de la estación favorable para el crecimiento y su duración. En este trabajo se han obtenido modelos de la distribución espacial de la precipitación y temperaturas, para el escenario base 1961-1990, el escenario actual 1971-2000, para algunos años El Niño y La Niña, así como para los escenarios de Cambio Climático HADLEY, ECHAM y GFDL, con escenarios A2 y B2, para las décadas de los 20s y 50s, para establecer el inicio y duración de la Estación de Crecimiento, utilizando Sistemas de Información Geográfica (ArcView). Estos resultados serán utilizados por los administradores de las decisiones locales, para estrategias de manejo y para la difusión entre los habitantes, de tal manera que esto les permita establecer prioridades en las medidas de mitigación, y formular las posibilidades de adaptación.
U34B-02
New Water Management Institutions in Mexico’s ‘New Culture of Water’: Emerging Opportunities and Challenges for Effective Use of Climate Knowledge and Climate Science
Since 1992, Mexico has developed a new set of water management institutions to usher in a ‘new culture of water’ that focuses on decentralized governance and formalized participation of local water users. Reforms to the national water legislation in April 2004 regionalized the governance of water and highlighted the importance of river basin councils as a mechanism for integrated management of major watersheds across Mexico. As a result of the dramatic national water policy reforms, water service delivery in Mexico has been decentralized to the state and municipal level, resulting in a critical new role for municipal governments charged with this important function. A network of river basin councils accompanied and sub-basin councils has been developed to undertake watershed planning. Decentralization and local participation policies embody numerous significant goals and promises, including greater efficiency, more financial accountability, fostering the beginnings of a sense of local stewardship of precious resources, and enhanced environmental sustainability. This paper examines the implications of municipalized water services and emerging river basin councils for utilization of climate knowledge and climate science. We analyze whether these changes open new windows of opportunity for meaningful use of climate science (e.g., forecasts; models). How effectively are municipal water managers and river basin councils utilizing climate knowledge and climate science, and for what purposes? Are there ways to improve the fit between the needs of water managers and river basin councils and the science that is currently available? What is the role of local participation in water policy making in urban settings and river basin councils? The study found overall that the promises and potential for effective utilization of climate science/knowledge to enhance sustainability exists, but is not yet being adequately realized. Binational efforts to develop climate science and information-sharing mechanisms across the Sonora/Arizona border and to work with local communities and stakeholders to improve the fit between science and social stakeholders’ needs should help realize the potential offered by Mexico’s emerging water management institutions and enhance sustainable policy making.
U34B-03
Adaptation to Interannual and Interdecadal Climate Variability in Agricultural Production Systems of the Argentine Pampas
Agricultural ecosystems play a central role in world food production and food security, and involve one of the most climate-sensitive sectors of society-agriculture. We focus on crop production in the Argentine Pampas, one of the world's major agricultural regions. Climate of the Pampas shows marked variability at both interannual and decadal time scales. We explored the scope for adaptive management in response to climate information on interannual scales. We show that different assumptions about what decision makers are trying to achieve (i.e., their objective functions) may change what actions are considered as "optimal" for a given climate context. Optimal actions also were used to estimate the economic value of forecasts of an ENSO phase. Decision constraints (e.g., crop rotations) have critical influence on value of the forecasting system. Gaps in knowledge or misconceptions about climate variability were identified in open-ended "mental model" interviews. Results were used to design educational interventions. A marked increase in precipitation since the 1970s, together with new production technologies, led to major changes in land use patterns in the Pampas. Continuous cropping has widely replaced agriculture-pasture rotations. Nevertheless, production systems that evolved partly in response to increased rainfall may not be viable if climate reverts to a drier epoch. We use historical data to define a range of plausible climate trajectories 20-30 years hence. Regional scenarios are downscaled using semi-parametric weather generators to produce multiple realizations of daily weather consistent with decadal scenarios. Finally, we use the synthetic climate, crop growth models, and realistic models of decision-making under risk to compute risk metrics (e.g., probability of yields or profits being below a threshold). Climatically optimal and marginal locations show differential responses: probabilities of negative economic results are much higher in currently marginal areas if precipitations decrease.
U34B-04
The Utility of Seasonal Climate Forecasts: Understanding Argentine Farmers' Attribute Priorities and Trade-Offs
A distinct El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal and its impacts have been confirmed in the Argentine Pampas, and precipitation variability is currently recognized as the region's most marked ENSO-driven influence. In the Pampas, precipitation is also a major limiting factor for agricultural production given spatial differences in soil water storage capacities and the region's relatively minimal use of irrigation. Seasonal climate forecasts that provide advanced knowledge of expected ENSO-driven precipitation anomalies may benefit farm management decision-making by helping to either mitigate potentially negative consequences or to take advantage of potentially positive influences. To be useful and applicable, however, these forecasts must suit the decisions that they are meant to inform. In this research, a case study is presented that investigates how farmers in the Pampas prioritize and trade off specific attributes of a seasonal climate forecast (i.e., mode of distribution, spatial resolution, lead time, and forecast performance) when judging its utility. A conjoint analysis evaluation decomposes holistic evaluations of forecasts into the part-worth utilities associated with their different attributes. Part-worth utilities combine to reveal the structure of farmers' forecast utility preferences - a model of the decision-making process. Utility preference structures are analyzed to compute the importance value of each attribute and to determine the trade-offs that farmers find acceptable between different attributes. Analysis indicates that, on average, spatial resolution is the most influential attribute in determining climate forecast utility. Attribute trade-off values suggest that advances in spatial resolution, forecast performance, and/or product dissemination via the Internet offer the greatest potential for increasing the utility of future seasonal climate forecasts for farmers in the Pampas.
U34B-05
Effects of Ocean Climate on Transboundary Movement of Coastal Pelagic Resources Between the EEZs of Mexico and the United States
Interannual to multidecadal changes in ocean climate directly impact access to transboundary coastal pelagic resources between fisheries operating in U.S. and Mexican waters. This study provides a preliminary analysis of the scale of year-to-year shifts in the distribution of the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax caeruleus) with data from 2002 and 2003. One of the purposes of this initiative is to provide a template for collaborative research to guide regional policy development for responsible and sustainable utilization of the shared resource. This work is based on coordinated quarterly ocean surveys run by Mexican (the IMECOCAL program=Investigaciones Mexicanas de la Corriente de California) and U.S. scientists (the CalCOFI program=California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations) allowing us to evaluate the annual state of the pelagic ecosystem from northern California to southern Baja California. The subject of this study is the "subarctic stock" of the Pacific sardine which is centered off California in the U.S. and extends southwards to the region off central Baja California. Estimates of sardine biomass in U.S. and Mexican waters, based on the rates of egg production measured during the IMECOCAL and CalCOFI surveys of April 2002 and April 2003, show order of magnitude differences in the relative proportions of biomass in the Mexican EEZ that is associated with the contrasts in ocean climate resulting from the regional effects of El Niño during April 2003. Results indicate a significant northward shift of the sardine stock off Mexico during 2003: we estimate that approximately 20 percent of the total biomass of the stock was located in the Mexican EEZ during spring of 2002 while the shift in ocean climate resulted in the presence of only 2 percent of the biomass of the stock in Mexican waters during April, 2003. A second, more southerly sardine stock extended from southern to central Baja California in April, 2003, but it was out of reach of the fleet operating from Ensenada in northern Baja California. These results are a warning of the vulnerability of the coastal pelagic fishery based in northern Baja California to long-term ocean warming coupled with effects of El Niño. Depending on the magnitude of the longer-term warming and the frequency of El Niños, there could be a persistent displacement of the Mexican portion of the subarctic sardine stock into the waters of the EEZ of the United States. However, this might be compensated somewhat by the simultaneous northward movement of the southerly stock, although this is difficult to predict now. Moreover, we do not know how the rate of production of the southerly stock and its resilience compares to that of the subarctic stock. It should also be noted that there is an increasing local demand for sardines in Baja California because of their use in mariculture operations as feed for fattening bluefin tuna in nearshore pens (for high-value export to Asia requiring that the tuna be feed on sardines to impart the desired flavor). If accessibility to the local sardine resource were to be limited by climate change, then the economy of the regional mariculture industry would surely suffer.
U34B-06
Tools for Climate Services
Full realization of socio-economic benefits of from public investments in climate services remains incomplete because decision makers have difficulty: 1) interpreting individual products, 2) appropriately judging information credibility, and 3) linking different types of information, both conceptually and practically. Addressing these barriers is as important as improving the science leading to improved information. The challenge is creating flexible climate information products and tools that can accommodate unique user needs; the goal is a systemic change in the nature of information delivery and use. The underlying assumption is not that climate information is good and useful, and simply needs to be communicated effectively. Rather, a number of conditions must be met before decision makers can make informed choices about whether to use particular information in a specific situation. Several case studies, of varying success, illustrate user-centric strategies for developing decision support tools: a forecast evaluation tool, a climate information management system, and a hydrologic alert system. However, tools alone will not bridge the barriers in climate services, with training and other capacity- building activities remaining important activities.
U34B-07
Establishing an Ongoing Binational U.S.-Mexico Border Climate Diagnostic Summary: Developing a Prototype and Navigating the Institutional Landscape
In its eighth report to the President and Congress of the United States, the Good Neighbor Environmental Board (an independent federal advisory committee, that advises the President and Congress on environmental practices and infrastructure needs along the U.S. border with Mexico) noted that management of water resources issues along the U.S. border with Mexico would be aided by data and information sharing. They encouraged agencies and institutions to make data accessible, and to exchange data and information, even on a limited or ad hoc basis, in order to build trust and the capacity for managers and staff on both sides of the border to collaborate and work together to solve problems of mutual interest. Although climate is merely one factor affecting decision makers, it can often be the "straw that breaks the camel's back." Along the arid and semiarid U.S. border with Mexico, population growth, industrialization, increasing water consumption, and other factors have exacerbated societal vulnerability to naturally occurring persistent climate phenomena, such as drought. In 2006, scientists from institutions in the U.S. and Mexico agreed to collaborate to address decision makers' pressing needs for climate information, by developing a climate diagnostic and outlook product in a format usable and easily accessible by managers and policy makers. The Border Climate Summary (Resumen del Climate de la Frontera), modeled after monthly climate newsletters produced in the U.S., provides a tangible and simple information tool to strengthen the basic capacity for climate information to be usefully incorporated into decision processes. The Summary provides forecasts and value-added information on temperature, precipitation, and drought within the region. However, in order for the Summary to be effective at reaching its intended audiences, collaborators must break through barriers posed by regulatory and institutional control. They must also identify key insertion points for climate information or risk that the product of their efforts will end up as another seldom used box of digital information merchandise heaped on the loading dock of the Internet. This presentation describes progress to date in developing a collaborative, binational semi-operational product, obtaining funding, and taking the first steps to establish regional climate services for the U.S.-Mexico border region.