HR: 0800h
AN: A31B-09 [Abstracts]
TI: Impact of the Extratropics EOF-Perturbation Modes in the CPTEC Ensemble Weather Forecast
AU: * Mendonca, A M
EM: mendonca@cptec.inpe.br
AF: CPTEC/INPE, Rodovia Presidente Dutra km 40, Cachoeira Paulista, SP 12630-000, Brazil
AU: Bonatti, J P
EM: bonatti@cptec.inpe.br
AF: CPTEC/INPE, Rodovia Presidente Dutra km 40, Cachoeira Paulista, SP 12630-000, Brazil
AB:
The EOF-based perturbation method, applied operationally at the Center for Weather Forecast and Climate
Studies (CPTEC) to produce perturbed initial conditions, is used in order to perturb the extratropics. The influence
that these new perturbations cause in the CPTEC ensemble weather forecast is evaluated through statistical
indexes. The results suggest that the application of the EOF-method to perturb the extratropics, simultaneously
with the tropical perturbations used currently may help to improve the quality of the ensemble forecast of the
CPTEC. Preliminary results about the utilization of the breeding of growing modes perturbation method are also
presented.
DE: 1817 Extreme events
DE: 3319 General circulation (1223)
DE: 3334 Middle atmosphere dynamics (0341, 0342)
DE: 3364 Synoptic-scale meteorology
DE: 4420 Chaos (7805)
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly