HR: 0800h
AN: A41A-03    [Abstracts]
TI: A Strategy for Climate Change Experiments
AU: * Hibbard, K A
EM: kathyh@ucar.edu
AF: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, United States
AU: Meehl, G A
EM: meehl@ucar.edu
AF: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, United States
AU: Cox, P
EM: P.M. Cox@exeter.ac.uk
AF: University of Exeter, Met Office Chair in Climate System Dynamics Room 921,Laver Building School of Engineering, Computer Science and Mathematics, Exeter, EX4 4QF, United Kingdom
AU: Friedlingstein, P
EM: pierre.friedlingstein@cea.fr
AF: IPSL/LSCE, CEA-Saclay, L'Orme des Merisiers, Bat 712, Gif sur Yvette, 91191, France
AB: Climate models used for climate change projections are on the threshold of including much greater biological and chemical detail. Today, standard climate models (referred to generically as atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, or AOGCMs) include components that simulate the coupled atmosphere, ocean, land and sea ice. Some modeling centers are now incorporating carbon cycle models into AOGCMs in a move towards an Earth System Model (ESM) capability. Additional candidate components for ESMs include aerosols, chemistry, and dynamic vegetation. This confluence of activities in model and scenario development must be communicated and coordinated across various groups and scientific communities. To this end, a strategy for the next generation climate simulations is discussed that: (1) identifies new components in preparation for inclusion in AOGCMs, (2) establishes communication for coordination through the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), Integrated Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Integrated Assessment (IA) modeling teams, (3) proposes an experimental design for 21st century climate change experiments and (4) specifies the requirements for time series of constituents from new stabilization scenarios (particularly with regard to impacts, mitigation, and adaptation). Two timescales have been proposed for community coordinated climate change projection experiments: near term (to 2030) and longer term (2100 and beyond). The proposed short term simulations are designed to provide better guidance as to the likelihood of changes in climate extremes at regional scales. Meeting this challenge will depend on scientific questions involving understanding the processes that produce such extremes related to the hydrological cycle, and relevant atmospheric and oceanic processes operative on appropriate timescales. For long-term simulations (2100 and beyond) concentrations (rather than emissions from scenarios) through the coupled models will generate the compatible emissions that can be derived by, say WGIII. In light of the release of the recent IPCC AR4 results, we believe that this topic is highly relevant and of broad interest to the AGU community.
DE: 1622 Earth system modeling (1225)
DE: 1626 Global climate models (3337, 4928)
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly