HR: 11:15h
AN: A42B-04    [Abstracts]
TI: Forced and Natural Atlantic Multidecadal Variabilities in Observations and Coupled Ocean- Atmosphere Models
AU: * Ting, M
EM: ting@ldeo.columbia.edu
AF: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, 61 Rt. 9W, Palisades, NY 10964, United States
AU: Kushnir, Y
EM: kushnir@ldeo.columbia.edu
AF: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, 61 Rt. 9W, Palisades, NY 10964, United States
AU: Li, C
EM: cli@ldeo.columbia.edu
AF: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, 61 Rt. 9W, Palisades, NY 10964, United States
AB: The recent increase in both the intensity and frequency of the Atlantic hurricane activities and the rapid increase in Greenland ice sheet melting have raised an extremely urgent question as to what causes these abrupt changes in climate. The most relevant scientific question is the relative contribution of those caused by the natural climate variabilities and those due to anthropogenic forcing. If both effects are important, then the next question is to determine the phase of the natural oscillation, so one can correctly predict what we can expect for the next decades given the anthropogenic climate change. This study examines the different methods to detect and separate the natural and forced components of the most prominent multidecadal variabilities in observations: the so called Atlantic Multdecadal Oscillation or AMO.
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly