HR: 11:50h
AN: A42B-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Increased Tropical Atlantic Wind Shear in Model Projections of Global Warming
AU: Vecchi, G A
EM: Gabriel.A.Vecchi@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA/GFDL, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton Forrestal Campus Rte. 1 P.O. Box 308, Princeton, NJ 08542-0308, United States
AU: * Soden, B J
EM: bsoden@rsmas.miami.edu
AF: U. Miami, RSMAS, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science University of Miami MPO, MSC 362 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, United States
AB: To help understand possible impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on hurricane activity, we assess model-projected changes in large-scale environmental factors tied to variations in hurricane statistics. This study focuses on vertical wind shear (Vs) over the tropical Atlantic during hurricane season, the increase of which has been historically associated with diminished hurricane activity and intensity. A suite of state-of-the-art global climate model experiments is used to project changes in Vs over the 21st century. Substantial (up to 30 percent) increases in tropical Atlantic and East Pacific shear are robust features of these experiments, and are shown to be connected to the model-projected decrease in the Pacific Walker circulation. The relative changes in shear are found to be comparable to those of other large-scale environmental parameters associated with Atlantic hurricane activity. The influence of these Vs changes should be incorporated into projections of long-term hurricane activity.
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (0429, 3309)
DE: 1626 Global climate models (3337, 4928)
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly