HR: 1400h
AN: A43A-07 [Abstracts]
TI: Evaluation of Air Pollution Control Policies in Mexico City Using a Markov Observation Based Model
AU: * Hoyos, L F
EM: hrlf@correo.azc.uam.mx
AF: Departamento de Sistemas, División de Ciencias Básicas e Ingeniería, Universidad
Autónoma Metropolitana, Azcapotzalco, Av. San Pablo 180, Col. Reynosa Tamaulipas, Mexico, DF 02200, Mexico
AU: Lara, P
AF: Departamento de Sistemas, División de Ciencias Básicas e Ingeniería, Universidad
Autónoma Metropolitana, Azcapotzalco, Av. San Pablo 180, Col. Reynosa Tamaulipas, Mexico, DF 02200, Mexico
AU: Ortiz, E
EM: meorv@correo.azc.uam.mx
AF: Departamento de Sistemas, División de Ciencias Básicas e Ingeniería, Universidad
Autónoma Metropolitana, Azcapotzalco, Av. San Pablo 180, Col. Reynosa Tamaulipas, Mexico, DF 02200, Mexico
AU: Gonzalez, J
EM: gtji@correo.azc.uam.mx
AF: Departamento de Sistemas, División de Ciencias Básicas e Ingeniería, Universidad
Autónoma Metropolitana, Azcapotzalco, Av. San Pablo 180, Col. Reynosa Tamaulipas, Mexico, DF 02200, Mexico
AU: López, R
AF: Departamento de Sistemas, División de Ciencias Básicas e Ingeniería, Universidad
Autónoma Metropolitana, Azcapotzalco, Av. San Pablo 180, Col. Reynosa Tamaulipas, Mexico, DF 02200, Mexico
AB:
This paper proposes a Markov observation based model where the transition matrix is constructed using air
quality monitoring data for specific pollutant. The primary objective of this model is to analyze the corresponding
stationary distributions and evaluate sceneries for the air quality impact of pollution control policies. The model is
non predictive and could be applied to every pollutant included in air monitoring data. Two cases of study are
presented, ozone and sulfur, over central zone of Mexico City for a seven years span from 2000 to 2006. For
analysis purposes, each year were divided in two semesters. For the ozone case, the stationary distribution of
both semesters shows a probability diminution of the higher ozone concentrate levels. This tendency along with
increasing probabilities of medium levels has been previously observed as "piston effect". In the sulfur case, the
first semester displays an oscillatory behavior with little tendency to decrease of the higher sulfur concentrate
levels. The second semester shows decreasing probabilities of the higher sulfur levels. The results support a
small improvement of air quality and then a favorable evaluation of the diverse pollution control strategies that had
been implemented in Mexico City over the last several years.
DE: 0399 General or miscellaneous
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly