HR: 17:00h
AN: A44A-03 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Linking Aerosol Source Activities to Present and Future Climate Effects
AU: * Koch, D
EM: dkoch@giss.nasa.gov
AF: Columbia University and Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, United States
AU: Bond, T C
EM: yark@uiuc.edu
AF: University of Illinois, 205 N. Mathews, Urbana, IL 61801, United States
AU: Streets, D
EM: dstreets@anl.gov
AF: Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Ave, Argonne, IL 60439, United States
AU: Menon, S
EM: smenon@lbl.gov
AF: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States
AU: Unger, N
EM: nadine.unger@uvm.edu
AF: University of Vermont, 321 Aiken Center, Burlington, VT 05405, United States
AB: Aerosol source sectors (transport, power, industry, residential, biomass burning) generate distinct mixtures of aerosol species. These mixtures in turn have different effects on climate. As sectoral emissions change in coming decades, whether by regulation or not, it is helpful to link pollution from source types to climate consequences. We do so, using our global (GISS GCM) aerosol model for present and future IPCC SRES scenarios. According to our model, residential and transport sectors have net positive 1995 aerosol forcings (0.04 and 0.03 W m^-2) due to their large black carbon contents. However, the sulfate-dominated power and industry sectors have net negative 1995 forcings (-0.10 and -0.09 W m^-2). Due to the near-balance of absorbing and scattering components, biomass burning forcing is small. For the 2050 SRES A1B scenario, the net (negative) aerosol forcing is double 1995 due primarily to increased sulfur emissions in the industry and power sectors. For 2050 B1 the net (negative) forcing decreases relative to 1995, as sulfur emissions are reduced. Both future scenarios project decreasing residential emissions. Yet transport emissions are expected to remain significant and thus become the dominant source of warming aerosols in the future. Aerosol pollution is projected to shift southward relative to the present, as the current industrialized regions generally reduce emissions and tropical and southern hemispheric regions continue to develop. Similar to these SRES scenarios, IIASA scenarios project a decline in residential emissions; however IIASA is more optimistic about transport sector emissions reductions. We will conduct present-day climate experiments, including aerosol direct and indirect effects, to study impacts of power and transport sectors on climate features such as air temperature and hydrologic cycle.
DE: 0305 Aerosols and particles (0345, 4801, 4906)
DE: 0368 Troposphere: constituent transport and chemistry
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 3305 Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 3311 Clouds and aerosols
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly