HR: 17:20h
AN: A44A-04    [Abstracts]
TI: GCM evaluation of the synergy of future air pollution and climate mitigation strategies: a sectorial analysis of GHG and aerosol impacts
AU: * Kloster, S
EM: silvia.kloster@jrc.it
AF: European Comission - Joint Research Centre, TP 290, Ispra, VA 21020, Italy
AU: Dentener, F
EM: frank.dentener@jrc.it
AF: European Comission - Joint Research Centre, TP 290, Ispra, VA 21020, Italy
AU: van Aardenne, J
EM: john.van-aardenne@jrc.it
AF: European Comission - Joint Research Centre, TP 290, Ispra, VA 21020, Italy
AU: Raes, F
EM: frank.raes@jrc.it
AF: European Comission - Joint Research Centre, TP 290, Ispra, VA 21020, Italy
AU: Swart, R
EM: rob.swart@rivm.nl
AF: RIVM, PO Box 1, Bilthoven, BA 3720, Netherlands
AU: Feichter, J
EM: johann.feichter@zmaw.de
AF: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, Hamburg, 20146, Germany
AU: Roeckner, E
EM: erich.roeckner@zmaw.de
AF: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, Hamburg, 20146, Germany
AB: Future climate change and air pollution mitigation strategies will both alter the emissions and concentrations of a range of climate relevant gases which act as forcing agents in the Earth System. Mitigation policies focusing on climate change or air pollution are in many cases not linked to each other, despite the fact that greenhouse gases, chemical active gases and aerosols have common sources. In addition, climate forcings do not act independently in the Earth System, but are often highly non-linearly coupled. Aerosol forcings, for example, are non-linearly coupled through microphysical aging processes and aerosol and greenhouse gas forcings are linked through the hydrological cycle. However, most of the model studies so far assessed climate impacts of specific forcing agents independent of each other. We aim for a integrated approach, assessing the combined climate effect of greenhouse gases, chemically active gases and aerosols. Thereby, we focus on specific economic source sectors to explore the combined impacts of climate protection and air pollution strategies. Experiments are performed with a global atmospheric general circulation model (ECHAM5) extended by a microphysical aerosol model (HAM). This model enables us to account for both the direct and indirect aerosol effects. We analyze the impact of a number of established emission scenarios for specific economic sectors and different abatement strategies (current legislation and maximum feasible reduction) for the year 2030. In a first step, we estimated the aerosol radiative forcing of these established emission scenarios under present day conditions. The aerosol radiative forcing (top of the atmosphere, whole sky) for the year 2030 compared to present-day conditions (2000) range between -0.17 W/m2 for the current legislation abatement strategy and + 1.12 W/m2 for the maximum feasible reduction scenario. For comparison, the total present day anthropogenic aerosol effect (present day minus pre-industrial) is simulated as -1.95 W/m2 within the ECHAM5-HAM model. For a subset of these emissions scenarios we perform climate equilibrium experiments to investigate the combined effects of greenhouse gas and aerosol emission mitigation strategies in the Earth System.
DE: 0300 ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE
DE: 0305 Aerosols and particles (0345, 4801, 4906)
DE: 3305 Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 3311 Clouds and aerosols
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly