HR: 0800h
AN: A51A-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Air Pollution Radiative Forcing From Specific Emissions Sectors at 2030: Prototype for a New IPCC Bar Chart
AU: * Unger, N
EM: nadine.unger@uvm.edu
AF: University of Vermont, 321 Aiken Center, Burlington, VT 05405, United States
AU: Shindell, D T
EM: dshindell@giss.nasa.gov
AF: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, United States
AU: Koch, D M
EM: dkoch@giss.nasa.gov
AF: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, United States
AB: Reduction of short-lived air pollutants provides a way to mitigate global warming in the short-term with ancillary benefits to human health. However, the radiative forcings of short-lived air pollutants depend on the location and source type of the precursor emissions. We apply the GISS atmospheric composition-climate model to quantify near future (2030 A1B) ozone (O3) and sulfate global mean direct radiative forcing impacts from 6 emissions sectors from 7 geographic regions. At 2030 the net forcings for the emissions sectors (including O3, sulfate, black and organic carbon forcings) are (in mW/m2): transportation = +106; biomass burning = +69; domestic = +38; power = -158; industry = -124. Hence the transportation sector is the most attractive target to counter global warming via reduction of short-lived air pollutants. Substantial transportation sector O3 forcings come from all regions (5-12 mW/m2). Central and Southern Africa and South America contribute the largest biomass burning O3 forcings (11-15 mW/m2). Domestic biofuel emissions from East Asia, South Asia and Central and South Africa and power and industry emissions from East Asia also contribute substantial O3 forcings (7-15mW/m2). The global mean sulfate forcings are dominated by the power and industry sectors with largest contributions from East Asia, South Asia and North Africa and Middle East (-30 to -50 mW/m2). Linear relationships exist between global mean radiative forcing by O3 and biomass burning and domestic biofuel CO precursor emissions independent of the region of origin with sensitivity of 0.02mW/m2/TgCO. Similarly, linear relationships are available for global mean radiative forcing by sulfate and SO2 precursor emissions that depend upon region but are independent of the emissions sector with sensitivities ranging from -3 to -12mW/m2/TgS. Such emissions to forcing diagnostics will assist development of climate-motivated policy for O3 and sulfate.
DE: 0305 Aerosols and particles (0345, 4801, 4906)
DE: 0345 Pollution: urban and regional (0305, 0478, 4251)
DE: 0485 Science policy (6620)
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly