HR: 0800h
AN: A51A-07    [Abstracts]
TI: Persistence versus growth: How sub-sectors affect the inevitability of future emissions
AU: * Bond, T C
EM: yark@uiuc.edu
AF: University of Illinois, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering 205 N. Mathews Ave., NCEL MC-250, Urbana, IL 61801, United States
AU: Yan, F
EM: fangyan2@uiuc.edu
AF: University of Illinois, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering 205 N. Mathews Ave., NCEL MC-250, Urbana, IL 61801, United States
AU: Jung, S
EM: soonkyujung@yahoo.com
AF: University of Illinois, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering 205 N. Mathews Ave., NCEL MC-250, Urbana, IL 61801, United States
AB: Some emissions—like those of black and organic carbon aerosols—vary by orders of magnitude depending on the combustion technology used. This means that a disproportionate fraction of emissions may come from the highest-emitting sources. Some of these sources may be resistant to change for social, economic, or political reasons. Thus, treating entire economic sectors as entities for which change can be broadly modeled is too simplistic. Emission changes are a composite of (a) growth in new, low-emitting sources; (b) growth in conventional, polluting sources; and (c) turnover of old technology stock. While this is true for traditional climate actors such as carbon dioxide, the importance of change in a small fraction of polluting sources is greater for aerosols and process-dependent trace gases. Future emissions are inevitable either if old stock persists, or if technology improvements cannot balance growth. We examine possible future transitions for two major contributors to global atmospheric pollution— vehicles and residential solid fuels—using a model driven with econometric relationships for technology choice. We use the Community Atmosphere Model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research to determine regionally-specific forcing values for aerosols. We apportion aerosol forcing changes in each region to growth and to persistent emitters. This suggests the most important actions that can alter aerosol forcing within the near future.
DE: 0305 Aerosols and particles (0345, 4801, 4906)
DE: 0345 Pollution: urban and regional (0305, 0478, 4251)
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly