HR: 11:05h
AN: A52B-04    [Abstracts]
TI: A Prediction of Global Surface Temperature Variations of Natural Origin for the Next Fifty Years
AU: * Duhau, S
EM: duhau@df.uba.ar
AF: Physics Department, Buenos Aires University, Ciudad Universitaria, Pab I, Buenos Aires, 1428, Argentina
AB: By a wavelet analysis of g length of day and geomagnetic index aa and Si time series, the last two as proxy data for the sources of energy of solar origin, the contribution to global temperature variations of solar activity and Earth rotation rate variability for the last 150 years in time scales larger than 20 years was evaluated in previous works. It is known that solar variability precedes length of the day variations by a century, so this parameter may be forecasted by this amount. Also, there are strong evidences that solar activity has started a fast declining episode. In base on these considerations the contribution of Earth rotation rate and solar activity variations to global surface temperature changes for the next half of century is predicted for three possible scenarios - solar activity is going either to the same levels that prior to 1923, or to a Dalton or a Grand minima-. It is found that the weakening of natural sources of climate change will lead to a cooling or more than 0.3º in lest that 20 years even in the more conservative of the scenarios . If this is so, the importance of solar CME's in the control of climate changes will be confirmed.
DE: 0399 General or miscellaneous
DE: 1645 Solid Earth (1225)
DE: 1650 Solar variability (7537)
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly