HR: 11:20h
AN: H22D-05    [Abstracts]
TI: Defining Scenarios: Linking Integrated Models, Regional Concerns, and Stakeholders
AU: * Hartmann, H C
EM: hollyoregon@juno.com
AF: SAHRA-STC, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources University of Arizona, 1133 E. James E. Rogers Way, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
AU: Stewart, S
EM: sstewart@hwr.arizona.edu
AF: SAHRA-STC, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources University of Arizona, 1133 E. James E. Rogers Way, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
AU: Liu, Y
EM: yqliu@hwr.arizona.edu
AF: SAHRA-STC, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources University of Arizona, 1133 E. James E. Rogers Way, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
AU: Mahmoud, M
EM: mahmoud@hwr.arizona.edu
AF: SAHRA-STC, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources University of Arizona, 1133 E. James E. Rogers Way, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
AB: Scenarios are important tools for long-term planning, and there is great interest in using integrated models in scenario studies. However, scenario definition and assessment are creative, as well as scientific, efforts. Using facilitated creative processes, we have worked with stakeholders to define regionally significant scenarios that encompass a broad range of hydroclimatic, socioeconomic, and institutional dimensions. The regional scenarios subsequently inform the definition of local scenarios that work with context-specific integrated models that, individually, can address only a subset of overall regional complexity. Based on concerns of stakeholders in the semi-arid US Southwest, we prioritized three dimensions that are especially important, yet highly uncertain, for long-term planning: hydroclimatic conditions (increased variability, persistent drought), development patterns (urban consolidation, distributed rural development), and the nature of public institutions (stressed, proactive). Linking across real-world decision contexts and integrated modeling efforts poses challenges of creatively connecting the conceptual models held by both the research and stakeholder communities.
UR: http:www.sahra.arizona.edu/scenarios
DE: 1807 Climate impacts
DE: 1834 Human impacts
DE: 1873 Uncertainty assessment (3275)
DE: 1880 Water management (6334)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly