HR: 16:20h
AN: H54B-01 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Demonstrating Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) for Northern California in an Operational Environment
AU: * Georgakakos, K P
EM: KGeorgakakos@hrc-lab.org
AF: HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH CENTER, 12780 High Bluff Drive Suite 250, San Diego, CA 92130, United States
AU: * Georgakakos, K P
EM: KGeorgakakos@hrc-lab.org
AF: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego , La Jolla, CA 92093, United States
AU: Graham, N E
EM: NGraham@hrc-lab.org
AF: HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH CENTER, 12780 High Bluff Drive Suite 250, San Diego, CA 92130, United States
AU: Graham, N E
EM: NGraham@hrc-lab.org
AF: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego , La Jolla, CA 92093, United States
AU: Georgakakos, A P
EM: AGeorgak@ce.gatech.edu
AF: Georgia Water Research Institute, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, United States
AU: Georgakakos, A P
EM: AGeorgak@ce.gatech.edu
AF: Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, United States
AU: Yao, H
EM: HYao@ce.gatech.edu
AF: Georgia Water Research Institute, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, United States
AU: Yao, H
EM: HYao@ce.gatech.edu
AF: Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, United States
AB: Considerable investments have been made toward improving the quality and applicability of climate, synoptic, and hydrologic forecast information. In addition, earlier retrospective studies have demonstrated that the management of water resource systems with large reservoirs can benefit from such information. However, prior to this project no focused program has aimed to quantify and demonstrate these benefits in an operational environment. As a result, few reservoir managers have been able or willing to dedicate the considerable effort required to utilize new approaches and realize the benefits of improved forecast information. The purpose of the Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) Project is to demonstrate increased water-use efficiency in Northern California water resources operations through the innovative application of meteorological/climate, hydrologic and decision science. In accordance with its purpose, the particular objectives of INFORM are to: (a) implement a prototype integrated forecast-management system for the primary Northern California reservoirs, both for individual reservoirs as well as system-wide; and (b) demonstrate the utility of meteorological/climate and hydrologic forecasts through near-real-time tests of the integrated system with actual data and management input, by comparing its economic and other benefits to those accruing from current management practices for the same hydrologic events. To achieve the general objectives of the INFORM project, the authors performed the following technical tasks: (a) Developed, implemented and performed validation of climate, weather, hydrology and decision INFORM components for Northern California with historical data and real-time data; (b) Integrated INFORM system climate, hydrology and decision components and performed initial operational tests producing real-time ensemble forecasts out to lead times of 16 days four times daily for the wet season 2005-2006, and out to 9 months with monthly resolution with start date of 1 March 2006; (c) Performed assessments of the integrated forecast- decision system value via retrospective simulation experiments; (d) Held INFORM design, assessment and training meetings with operational forecast and management agency staff. There are several technical and specific conclusions that have been drawn from the outcomes of the project in the areas of meteorology/climate, hydrology, and decision science. These conclusions will be discussed at the presentation. The most important conclusion of the report is that, with available real-time availability of forecast information from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and with real-time observed precipitation and temperature as well as hydrologic model state values from the California Nevada River Forecast Center, integrated forecast- management systems are effective tools for assisting water managers in translating forecasts and their uncertainty into a range of effective risk-based policies.
UR: http:www.hrc-lab.org/projects/dsp_projectSubPage.php?subpage=inform
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 1840 Hydrometeorology
DE: 1873 Uncertainty assessment (3275)
DE: 1880 Water management (6334)
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly