HR: 16:50h
AN: NG44A-03    [Abstracts]
TI: Specification and Forecast of Energetic magnetospheric Particles and Geomagnetic Activity
AU: * Baker, D N
EM: daniel.baker@lasp.colorado.edu
AF: LASP/Univ. of Colorado, 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303-7814, United States
AU: Gehmeyr, M
EM: Michael.gehmeyr@lasp.colorado.edu
AF: LASP/Univ. of Colorado, 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303-7814, United States
AB: Prompt and accurate assessments of enhancements in near-Earth energetic particles are crucial to understanding causes of space system operational problems. For this purpose, it is necessary to know the state of the present (and recent past) space environment. Ideally, this means that one should be able to specify the temporal behavior of energetic particles at all relevant altitudes, latitudes, and local times over the entire energy range of interest to space system operators. Through the use of data from a variety of scientific and operational spacecraft, it has been possible in recent times to develop "dynamic" radiation models and predictions of geomagnetic conditions. Our present work in this regard uses a variety of data modeling techniques. With such modeling, we are generally able to achieve reasonable accuracies of energetic particle flux specification throughout the outer magnetosphere. We are also able to forecast geomagnetic indices (Ap) and particle fluxes for some 3-4 days based upon analog modeling techniques. Future work employing these methods should allow even more accurate, reliable specification for magnetospheric conditions.
DE: 4430 Complex systems
DE: 4475 Scaling: spatial and temporal (1872, 3270, 4277)
DE: 4494 Instruments and techniques
DE: 4499 General or miscellaneous
SC: Nonlinear Geophysics [NG]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly