HR: 17:40h
AN: OS34B-06    [Abstracts]
TI: How Changing Human Lifestyles are Shaping Europe's Regional Seas
AU: * Mee, L D
EM: lmee@plymouth.ac.uk
AF: Marine Institute University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth, TQ95HR, United Kingdom
AU: Lowe, C D
EM: Christopher.Lowe@plymouth.ac.uk
AF: Marine Institute University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth, TQ95HR, United Kingdom
AU: Langmead, O
EM: Olivia.Langmead@plymouth.ac.uk
AF: Marine Institute University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth, TQ95HR, United Kingdom
AU: McQuatters-Gollop, A
EM: Abigail.McQuatters-Gollop@plymouth.ac.uk
AF: Marine Institute University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth, TQ95HR, United Kingdom
AU: Attrill, M
EM: Martin.Attrill@plymouth.ac.uk
AF: Marine Institute University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth, TQ95HR, United Kingdom
AU: Cooper, P
EM: mnspc@management.bath.ac.uk
AF: University of Bath School of Management, University, Bath, BA2 7AY, United Kingdom
AU: Gilbert, A
EM: alison.gilbert@ivm.vu.nl
AF: Institute for Estuarine & Coastal Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1085, Amsterdam, 1081 HV, Netherlands
AU: Knudsen, S
EM: stale.knudsen@fa.uib.no
AF: Department of Social Anthropology, University of Bergen, Lauritz Melzers Hus, Fosswinckelsgate 6, Bergen, Norway
AU: Garnacho, E
EM: eva.garnacho@cefas.co.uk
AF: Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT, United Kingdom
AB: European society is experiencing unprecedented changes triggered by expansion of the European Union, the fall of Communism, economic growth and the onset of globalisation. Europe's regional seas, the Baltic, Black Sea, Mediterranean and North-East Atlantic (including the North Sea), provide key goods and services to the human population but have suffered from severe degradation in past decades. Their integrity as coupled social and ecological systems depends on how humanity will anticipate potential problems and deal with its ecological footprint in the future. We report the outcome of an EU-funded 15-country, 28 institution project entitled European Lifestyles and Marine Ecosystems (ELME). Our studies were designed to inform new EU policy and legislation that incorporates Ecosystem-Based Management. ELME has modelled the key relationships between economic and social drivers (D), environmental pressures (P) and changes in the state of the environment (S) in Europe's regional seas. We examined four key issues in each sea: habitat change, eutrophication, chemical pollution and fisheries. We developed conceptual models for each regional sea and employed a novel stochastic modelling technique to examine the interrelationship between key components of the conceptual models. We used the models to examine 2-3 decade projections of current trends in D, P and S and how a number of alternative development scenarios might modify these trends. These simulations demonstrate the vulnerability of Europe's seas to human pressure. As affluence increases in countries acceding to the EU, so does the demand for marine goods and services. There are ‘winners' and ‘losers' amongst marine species; the winners are often species that are opportunistic invaders or those with low economic value. In the case of eutrophication, semi-enclosed seas such as the Baltic or Black Sea are already affected by the ‘legacy of the past'; nutrients that have accumulated in soils, ground waters and sediments and are gradually released to the water column. This situation is analogous to climate change ‘locked in' by current greenhouse gas concentrations that are products of past economic activities. For the Baltic Sea for example, only a radical reduction in both phosphorus and nitrogen loads to the sea would overcome eutrophication, and future management strategies must contemplate adaptation as well as mitigation. These strategies will also need to accommodate climate change, regime shifts and emergent issues such as ‘lifestyle' chemicals and the massive development of offshore renewable energy.
DE: 0460 Marine systems (4800)
DE: 0466 Modeling
DE: 0470 Nutrients and nutrient cycling (4845, 4850)
DE: 4813 Ecological prediction
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
SC: Ocean Sciences [OS]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly