HR: 08:20h
AN: PP51A-02 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Historical Chronology of ENSO Events Based Upon Documentary Data From South America: Strengths and Limitations
AU: * Luc, O
EM: Luc.Ortlieb@ird.fr
AF: PALEOTROPIQUE, Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, Centre IRD ile de France 32 avenue H. Varagnat, Bondy Cedex, 93143, France
AB: The first reconstructions of past El Niño occurrences were proposed by W. Quinn twenty years ago. They were based on documentary evidence of anomalous rainfall episodes, destructive floods and other possible impacts of El Niño conditions in Peru and other South-American countries. It has been shown, later, that the El Niño chronological sequence covering the last four and a half centuries produced by Quinn needed a thorough revision since many so-called EN events had not occurred while some others had been overlooked. Beside the classical methodological problems met in historical climatology studies (reliability of data, confidence in the sources, primary and secondary information), the reconstruction of former EN events faces specific difficulties dealing with the significance of the indicators and their spatial location. For instance, strong precipitation anomalies during summer in Southern Ecuador and northern Peru and precipitation excess recorded in the preceding winter in central Chile constitute quite reliable proxies of El Niño conditions, in modern times. However this observed teleconnection pattern, which is useful to reinforce the interpretation of past EN occurrences, seems to have been inoperative before the early nineteenth century. It is interpreted that atmospheric circulation features during the Little Ice Age interfered with the teleconnection system linking the EN impacts in northern Peru and central Chile. As a consequence, how should be evaluated the significance of documented winter precipitation excess in central Chile in years during which there is drought evidence in northern Peru, during the sixteenth to eighteenth century? And vice versa, are former evidences for precipitation excess in northern Peru (prior to the nineteenth century) quite reliable indicators for EN conditions, even if the preceding winter was dry in the Valparaiso-Santiago region? Other specific problems met in the building-up of a consolidated EN chronological sequence deal with the non-homogeneity of the documentary records, the reconstruction of the paleo-events strength and the difficulty to cross check documentary data with other annually resolved records (corals, tree-rings and ice-core data). In spite of all these limitations, the documentation of former EN occurrences based upon written archives from colonial South-America remains an unavoidable and powerful tool to reconstruct a solid El Niño chronology for the last half millennium and to better understand the interplay of the different modes (at the interannual, decadal, multidecadal and centennial scales) of climate variations in this part of the world.
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 3305 Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 3344 Paleoclimatology (0473, 4900)
DE: 4215 Climate and interannual variability (1616, 1635, 3305, 3309, 4513)
DE: 4522 ENSO (4922)
SC: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology [PP]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly