HR: 16:35h
AN: S24A-02    [Abstracts]
TI: The Prediction of Damage to Buildings by Earthquake in the Residential Zones of Colima, México, From the Damage Probability Matrix and its Test by the 2003 Mw 7.5 Earthquake
AU: * Zobin, V M
EM: vzobin@cgic.ucol.mx
AF: Observatorio Vulcanologico, Universidad de Colima, Av. Gonzalo Sandoval 444, Colima, Col 28045, Mexico
AB: The damage probability matrix was calculated for the Colima, México masonry (Zobin and Ventura-Ramírez, 1999) for three residential zones and for the earthquakes of intensity MM of VI to IX (Mercalli Modify Scale). The Mw 7.5 earthquake of 21 January 2003 that occurred within the Mexican subduction zone had tested this prediction. The macroseismic investigation of damage produced by the earthquake in Colima city was realized for 3,332 constructions within the area of study representing about 20 per cent of the total city area and covered with the different type of constructions. The 7-grade scale of damage was used to describe the damage distribution. The damage matrix, constructed for the area, showed that the damage distribution varied from 63 per cent for constructions with relatively slight damages (grades 1 to 3) for 29 per cent to constructions that had significant damages (grades 4 to 5) and 8 per cent for completely destructed or demolished masonry. The damage matrix, constructed for 12 subzones of the area of study, reflected two tendencies in the damage distributions: the predominance of slight damage to the recent constructions situated in the northern and eastern parts of the area and the predominance of significant damage to the older constructions in the southern and western parts of the area. It was observed a significant dependence of damage index upon the age of constructions and the type of masonry. The observed damage matrix was in a good accordance with the 1999 damage probability matrix (MM VII) for two zones of three where the prediction was done.
DE: 7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology
DE: 7215 Earthquake source observations (1240)
DE: 7230 Seismicity and tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242)
DE: 7240 Subduction zones (1207, 1219, 1240)
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly