HR: 1400h
AN: SH23A-10    [Abstracts]
TI: The First Space Weather Forecast Models from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling
AU: * GEHMEYR, M
EM: gehmeyr@lasp.colorado.edu
AF: LASP, University of Colorado, 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303, United States
AU: Baker, D N
AF: LASP, University of Colorado, 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303, United States
AU: Arge, C N
AF: Space Vehicles Directorate, AFRL, 29 Randolph Road, Hanscom AFB, MA 01731, United States
AU: Millward, G
AF: LASP, University of Colorado, 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303, United States
AU: Odstrcil, D
AF: CIRES, Space Environment Center, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305, United States
AU: Rigler, J
AF: High Altitude Observatory, NCAR, 3080 Center Green, Boulder, CO 80301, United States
AU: Weigel, R S
AF: School of Computational Sciences, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030, United States
AB: One main objective of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) is to develop forecast models (FM) for the Sun-Earth chain, and to mature them close to the operational stage. The Sun-Earth chain comprises empirical and physical models. Among the former is the Planetary Equivalent Amplitude FM with a 1 to 7 day prediction of the daily Ap and a 3 to 24 hour prediction of the running 3 hourly ap. We employ a linear filter technique which is driven by real-time ACE solar wind speed and AFWA Ap/ap data. Among the latter is the Ambient Solar Wind FM with a 1 to 5 day prediction of solar wind parameters in 6 hour intervals. It is driven by daily NSO/SOLIS synoptic maps. We employ the Wang-Sheeley-Arge algorithm to transform these into inner boundary conditions for the ideal MHD code ENLIL, which propagates the solar wind structures out to Earth and beyond. We are also preparing a Geospace FM with short-range predictions for magnetospheric and ionospheric parameters, which is driven by real-time ACE measurements. The transition from science to forecast model follows along these main steps: the science model is validated against various metrics, software engineering matures the transition candidate, and useful forecast products are derived from the forecast model.
DE: 7833 Mathematical and numerical techniques (0500, 3200)
DE: 7924 Forecasting (2722)
DE: 7959 Models
DE: 7999 General or miscellaneous
SC: SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics [SH]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly