HR: 08:05h
AN: U31B-01 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Extreme Earthquakes: Implications of the Current State of Earthquake Risk Assessment and Forecasting
AU: * Rundle, J B
EM: jbrundle@ucdavis.edu
AF: University of California, Department of Physics One Shields Ave, Davis, CA 95618, United States
AU: Holliday, J R
EM: holliday@cse.ucdavis.edu
AF: University of California, Department of Physics One Shields Ave, Davis, CA 95618, United States
AB: Major earthquakes are a type of extreme event that can produce great damage and loss of life. As world populations become more heavily concentrated in seismically active regions, it is only a matter of time before a major earthquake destroys a large metropolitan area. Until recently, it was thought that little or no information could be detected about future major earthquake locations or occurrence times using only seismic catalogs. The state-of-the-art in spatial information about future earthquakes has been the national and world hazard maps, which are actually forecasts of ground shaking probabilities over a 50-year time window. Similarly, the temporal dependence of major earthquakes has been thought to be governed by Poisson statistics, implying that future earthquakes have no memory of past earthquake locations or occurrence times. However, very recent research is leading to a substantial reappraisal of the information content of standard seismic catalogs. Using new ensemble classifier technology, together with signal detection theory, both of which grow out of modern pattern analysis methods, we are now finding that much tighter limits can be placed upon the space and time windows in which future major earthquakes will occur. Using these ideas, it may be possible to assess earthquake risk by computing actual space-time probabilities relating to the occurrence of major earthquakes in a region. In this talk, I discuss current research in this field, as well as the difficulties that may occur in practical use of these ideas in the public policy and economic arenas.
DE: 3238 Prediction (3245, 4263)
DE: 3245 Probabilistic forecasting (3238)
DE: 4430 Complex systems
DE: 7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242)
SC: Union [U]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly