HR: 09:15h
AN: U41B-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures and Their Relationship to North American Fire Danger and Drought Variability
AU: * Hall, B L
EM: Beth.Hall@dri.edu
AF: Desert Research Institute, 2215 Raggio Pkwy, Reno, NV 89512, United States
AU: Brown, T J
EM: tbrown@dri.edu
AF: Desert Research Institute, 2215 Raggio Pkwy, Reno, NV 89512, United States
AU: Banta, J R
EM: ryan.banta@dri.edu
AF: Desert Research Institute, 2215 Raggio Pkwy, Reno, NV 89512, United States
AB: In this study, gridded sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean are analyzed in relation to monthly North American wildland fire danger and drought. Wildland fire danger is the sum of constant danger and variable danger factors affecting the inception, spread and resistance to control, and subsequent fire damage; often expressed as a relative number indicating the severity of wildland fire danger. Temperature, relative humidity and precipitation are integrated meteorological inputs for the computation of fire danger indices. The drought index used in this study is the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based upon monthly precipitation totals. While it is known that SSTs can influence anomaly patterns of these meteorological elements, it is of interest to examine patterns and variability of fire danger and precipitation anomalies as related to SST patterns. These results provide direct benefit to fire agencies by identifying key regions of potential predictability and areas most likely to be impacted by ocean influence using a decision-support tool (fire danger) common in fire management. In the analysis, positive matrix factorization is used to relate monthly SST, fire danger computed from the 32-km North American Regional Reanalysis for the period 1980-2005, and SPI based upon the approximate 4-km monthly SPI dataset. The fire danger index used in the analysis is the energy release component (ERC) that is the computed total heat released per unit area within the flaming front at the head of an advancing fire, and is a heavily utilized index in fire management. While some studies have focused on and found SST relationships to fire occurrence and drought regionally, this analysis is unique in that 1) fire danger (ERC) spatial patterns are examined for the first time; and 2) drought is analyzed using gridded data as opposed to point-specific or climate division domains. Results of this study suggest several climate modes that indicate an inter-relationship between drought, fire danger, and Pacific SSTs.
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 1631 Land/atmosphere interactions (1218, 1843, 3322)
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
SC: Union [U]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly