HR: 14:30h
AN: V33C-03    [Abstracts]
TI: APOLLO: AN AUTOMATIC PROCEDURE TO FORECAST TRANSPORT AND DEPOSITION OF TEPHRA
AU: * Folch, A
EM: afolch@ov.ingv.it
AF: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Diocleziano 328, Naples, 80124, Italy
AU: Costa, A
EM: costa@ov.ingv.it
AU: Macedonio, G
EM: macedon@ov.ingv.it
AB: Volcanic ash fallout represents a serious threat to communities around active volcanoes. Reliable short term predictions constitute a valuable support for to mitigate the effects of fallout on the surrounding area during an episode of crisis. We present a platform-independent automatic procedure aimed to daily forecast volcanic ash dispersal. The procedure builds on a series of programs and interfaces that allow an automatic data/results flow. Firstly the procedure downloads mesoscale meteorological forecasts for the region and period of interest, filters and converts data from its native format (typically GRIB format files), and sets up the CALMET diagnostic meteorological model to obtain hourly wind field and micro-meteorological variables on a finer mesh. Secondly a 1-D version of the buoyant plume equations assesses the distribution of mass along the eruptive column depending on the obtained wind field and on the conditions at the vent (granulometry, mass flow rate, etc.). All these data are used as input for the ash dispersion model(s). Any model able to face physical complexity and coupling processes with adequate solving times can be plugged into the system by means of an interface. Currently, the procedure contains the models HAZMAP, TEPHRA and FALL3D, the latter in both serial and parallel versions. Parallelization of FALL3D is done at two levels one for particle classes and one for spatial domain. The last step is to post-processes the model(s) outcomes to end up with homogeneous maps written on portable format files. Maps plot relevant quantities such as predicted ground load, expected deposit thickness or visual and flight safety concentration thresholds. Several applications are shown as examples.
DE: 8488 Volcanic hazards and risks
SC: Volcanology, Geochemistry, and Petrology [V]
MN: 2007 Joint Assembly